A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation

J. D. Lewsey*, K. D. Lawson, I. Ford, K. A. A. Fox, L. D. Ritchie, H. Tunstall-Pedoe, G. C. M. Watt, M. Woodward, S. Kent, M. Neilson, A. H. Briggs

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Objectives A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions. In this study, we introduce a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model which can be used to model remaining life expectancy including a measure of socioeconomic deprivation as an independent risk factor for CVD.

Design A state transition model was developed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) linked to Scottish morbidity and death records. Individuals start in a CVD-free state and can transit to three CVD event states plus a non-CVD death state. Individuals who have a non-fatal first event are then followed up until death. Taking a competing risk approach, the cause-specific hazards of a first event are modelled using parametric survival analysis. Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically. We assessed discrimination, validation and calibration of our model.

Results Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)). In general, our model predictions were comparable with observed event rates for a Scottish randomised statin trial population which has an overlapping follow-up period with SHHEC. After applying a calibration factor, our predictions of life expectancy closely match those published in recent national life tables.

Conclusions Our model can be used to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on life expectancy and can assess the impact of interventions on inequalities.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)201-208
Number of pages8
JournalHeart
Volume101
Issue number3
Early online date16 Oct 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2015

Keywords

  • coronary-heart-disease
  • cost-effectiveness
  • risk
  • prevention
  • mortality
  • cohort
  • Scotland
  • burden
  • health
  • death

Cite this

Lewsey, J. D., Lawson, K. D., Ford, I., Fox, K. A. A., Ritchie, L. D., Tunstall-Pedoe, H., ... Briggs, A. H. (2015). A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation. Heart, 101(3), 201-208. https://doi.org/10.1136/heartjnl-2014-305637

A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation. / Lewsey, J. D.; Lawson, K. D.; Ford, I.; Fox, K. A. A.; Ritchie, L. D.; Tunstall-Pedoe, H.; Watt, G. C. M.; Woodward, M.; Kent, S.; Neilson, M.; Briggs, A. H.

In: Heart, Vol. 101, No. 3, 01.02.2015, p. 201-208.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Lewsey, JD, Lawson, KD, Ford, I, Fox, KAA, Ritchie, LD, Tunstall-Pedoe, H, Watt, GCM, Woodward, M, Kent, S, Neilson, M & Briggs, AH 2015, 'A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation', Heart, vol. 101, no. 3, pp. 201-208. https://doi.org/10.1136/heartjnl-2014-305637
Lewsey, J. D. ; Lawson, K. D. ; Ford, I. ; Fox, K. A. A. ; Ritchie, L. D. ; Tunstall-Pedoe, H. ; Watt, G. C. M. ; Woodward, M. ; Kent, S. ; Neilson, M. ; Briggs, A. H. / A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation. In: Heart. 2015 ; Vol. 101, No. 3. pp. 201-208.
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abstract = "Objectives A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions. In this study, we introduce a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model which can be used to model remaining life expectancy including a measure of socioeconomic deprivation as an independent risk factor for CVD.Design A state transition model was developed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) linked to Scottish morbidity and death records. Individuals start in a CVD-free state and can transit to three CVD event states plus a non-CVD death state. Individuals who have a non-fatal first event are then followed up until death. Taking a competing risk approach, the cause-specific hazards of a first event are modelled using parametric survival analysis. Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically. We assessed discrimination, validation and calibration of our model.Results Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)). In general, our model predictions were comparable with observed event rates for a Scottish randomised statin trial population which has an overlapping follow-up period with SHHEC. After applying a calibration factor, our predictions of life expectancy closely match those published in recent national life tables.Conclusions Our model can be used to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on life expectancy and can assess the impact of interventions on inequalities.",
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T1 - A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation

AU - Lewsey, J. D.

AU - Lawson, K. D.

AU - Ford, I.

AU - Fox, K. A. A.

AU - Ritchie, L. D.

AU - Tunstall-Pedoe, H.

AU - Watt, G. C. M.

AU - Woodward, M.

AU - Kent, S.

AU - Neilson, M.

AU - Briggs, A. H.

N1 - The development of the policy model was funded by the Chief Scientist Office for Scotland CZH/4/557.

PY - 2015/2/1

Y1 - 2015/2/1

N2 - Objectives A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions. In this study, we introduce a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model which can be used to model remaining life expectancy including a measure of socioeconomic deprivation as an independent risk factor for CVD.Design A state transition model was developed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) linked to Scottish morbidity and death records. Individuals start in a CVD-free state and can transit to three CVD event states plus a non-CVD death state. Individuals who have a non-fatal first event are then followed up until death. Taking a competing risk approach, the cause-specific hazards of a first event are modelled using parametric survival analysis. Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically. We assessed discrimination, validation and calibration of our model.Results Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)). In general, our model predictions were comparable with observed event rates for a Scottish randomised statin trial population which has an overlapping follow-up period with SHHEC. After applying a calibration factor, our predictions of life expectancy closely match those published in recent national life tables.Conclusions Our model can be used to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on life expectancy and can assess the impact of interventions on inequalities.

AB - Objectives A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions. In this study, we introduce a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model which can be used to model remaining life expectancy including a measure of socioeconomic deprivation as an independent risk factor for CVD.Design A state transition model was developed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) linked to Scottish morbidity and death records. Individuals start in a CVD-free state and can transit to three CVD event states plus a non-CVD death state. Individuals who have a non-fatal first event are then followed up until death. Taking a competing risk approach, the cause-specific hazards of a first event are modelled using parametric survival analysis. Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically. We assessed discrimination, validation and calibration of our model.Results Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)). In general, our model predictions were comparable with observed event rates for a Scottish randomised statin trial population which has an overlapping follow-up period with SHHEC. After applying a calibration factor, our predictions of life expectancy closely match those published in recent national life tables.Conclusions Our model can be used to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on life expectancy and can assess the impact of interventions on inequalities.

KW - coronary-heart-disease

KW - cost-effectiveness

KW - risk

KW - prevention

KW - mortality

KW - cohort

KW - Scotland

KW - burden

KW - health

KW - death

U2 - 10.1136/heartjnl-2014-305637

DO - 10.1136/heartjnl-2014-305637

M3 - Article

VL - 101

SP - 201

EP - 208

JO - Heart

JF - Heart

SN - 1355-6037

IS - 3

ER -