Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Joanna M. Clark, Joanna I. House, Harriet G. Orr, I. Colin Prentice, Pete Smith, Timothy Farewell, Stephen J. Chapman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

74 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071-2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is similar to 84% smaller than contemporary conditions (1961-1990); only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)151-162
Number of pages12
JournalClimate Research
Volume45
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Keywords

  • Bioclimatic envelope
  • Model
  • Blanket peatlands
  • Peat
  • Climate change
  • Great Britain
  • Extinction risk
  • Organic-carbon
  • Future
  • England
  • Soils
  • Wales
  • UK
  • Conservation
  • Sensitivity
  • Landscapes

Cite this

Gallego-Sala, A. V., Clark, J. M., House, J. I., Orr, H. G., Prentice, I. C., Smith, P., Farewell, T., & Chapman, S. J. (2010). Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. Climate Research, 45(1), 151-162. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00911