Biophysical and Economic Constraints on China’s Natural Climate Solutions

Nan Lu; Hanqin Tian; Bojie Fu; Huiqian Yu; Shilong Piao; Shiyin Chen; Ya Li; Xiaoyong Li; Mengyu Wang; Zidong Li; Lu Zhang; Philippe Ciais; Pete Smith

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01432-3

Biophysical and Economic Constraints on China’s Natural Climate Solutions

Nan Lu, Hanqin Tian, Bojie Fu^*, Huiqian Yu, Shilong Piao, Shiyin Chen, Ya Li, Xiaoyong Li, Mengyu Wang, Zidong Li, Lu Zhang, Philippe Ciais, Pete Smith

^*Corresponding author for this work

Aberdeen Centre For Environmental Sustainability

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Abstract

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are strategies for climate mitigation in the land sector that increase carbon storage or avoid GHG emissions. Here we estimate China's historic NCS mitigation at 0.6 (0.5-0.7) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) (95% CI) during 2000-2020 (8% of fossil CO2 emissions in the contemporary period). Through new NCS activities, the future maximum potential for NCS is projected at 0.6 (0.3-1.0) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) (6% of fossil CO2 emissions) during 2020-2030 and 1.0 (0.6-1.4) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) during 2020-2060. Of the future NCS potentials, 26-31%, 62-65% and 90-91% can be achieved at mitigation costs of US$10, US$50 and US$100 (MgCO(2)e)(-1), respectively. Thus, NCS can contribute substantially to China's Nationally Determined Contributions over the next 10 to 40 years but require a national strategy to reach climate goals and ensure co-benefits for people and nature.

Managing natural systems to mitigation climate change is a key strategy for limiting warming. In China, such natural climate solutions could offset 6% of CO2 emissions during 2020-2030, contributing to mitigation goals but highlighting the importance of emissions reductions.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	847-853
Number of pages	16
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	12
Issue number	9
Early online date	18 Aug 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01432-3
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2022

Bibliographical note

Acknowledgements
B.F. and N.L. acknowledge financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41991230) and the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0604700); H.T. acknowledges funding support from the National Science Foundation of the United States (grant no. 1903722) and Andrew Carnegie Fellowship Program (grant no. G-F-19-56910).

Data Availability Statement

Data availability
The base map is available from National Earth System Science Data Center, National Science and Technology Infrastructure of China (http://www.geodata.cn). All data generated or analysed during this study are provided with data sources in the Supplementary Information.

Code availability
We acknowledge the ArcMap Software version 10.6 (https://www.esri.com/en-us/arcgis/products/arcgis-desktop/resources), R Software Foundation version R x64 4.0.3 (https://mirrors.tuna.tsinghua.edu.cn/CRAN/) and Python Software Foundation: Python Language Reference, version 3.7.7 (http://www.python.org).

Keywords

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
SOCIAL COST
CARBON

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

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title = "Biophysical and Economic Constraints on China{\textquoteright}s Natural Climate Solutions",

abstract = "Natural climate solutions (NCS) are strategies for climate mitigation in the land sector that increase carbon storage or avoid GHG emissions. Here we estimate China's historic NCS mitigation at 0.6 (0.5-0.7) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) (95% CI) during 2000-2020 (8% of fossil CO2 emissions in the contemporary period). Through new NCS activities, the future maximum potential for NCS is projected at 0.6 (0.3-1.0) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) (6% of fossil CO2 emissions) during 2020-2030 and 1.0 (0.6-1.4) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) during 2020-2060. Of the future NCS potentials, 26-31%, 62-65% and 90-91% can be achieved at mitigation costs of US$10, US$50 and US$100 (MgCO(2)e)(-1), respectively. Thus, NCS can contribute substantially to China's Nationally Determined Contributions over the next 10 to 40 years but require a national strategy to reach climate goals and ensure co-benefits for people and nature.Managing natural systems to mitigation climate change is a key strategy for limiting warming. In China, such natural climate solutions could offset 6% of CO2 emissions during 2020-2030, contributing to mitigation goals but highlighting the importance of emissions reductions.",

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author = "Nan Lu and Hanqin Tian and Bojie Fu and Huiqian Yu and Shilong Piao and Shiyin Chen and Ya Li and Xiaoyong Li and Mengyu Wang and Zidong Li and Lu Zhang and Philippe Ciais and Pete Smith",

note = "Acknowledgements B.F. and N.L. acknowledge financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41991230) and the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0604700); H.T. acknowledges funding support from the National Science Foundation of the United States (grant no. 1903722) and Andrew Carnegie Fellowship Program (grant no. G-F-19-56910).",

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doi = "10.1038/s41558-022-01432-3",

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T1 - Biophysical and Economic Constraints on China’s Natural Climate Solutions

AU - Lu, Nan

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Fu, Bojie

AU - Yu, Huiqian

AU - Piao, Shilong

AU - Chen, Shiyin

AU - Li, Ya

AU - Li, Xiaoyong

AU - Wang, Mengyu

AU - Li, Zidong

AU - Zhang, Lu

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Smith, Pete

N1 - Acknowledgements B.F. and N.L. acknowledge financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41991230) and the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0604700); H.T. acknowledges funding support from the National Science Foundation of the United States (grant no. 1903722) and Andrew Carnegie Fellowship Program (grant no. G-F-19-56910).

PY - 2022/9/1

Y1 - 2022/9/1

N2 - Natural climate solutions (NCS) are strategies for climate mitigation in the land sector that increase carbon storage or avoid GHG emissions. Here we estimate China's historic NCS mitigation at 0.6 (0.5-0.7) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) (95% CI) during 2000-2020 (8% of fossil CO2 emissions in the contemporary period). Through new NCS activities, the future maximum potential for NCS is projected at 0.6 (0.3-1.0) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) (6% of fossil CO2 emissions) during 2020-2030 and 1.0 (0.6-1.4) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) during 2020-2060. Of the future NCS potentials, 26-31%, 62-65% and 90-91% can be achieved at mitigation costs of US$10, US$50 and US$100 (MgCO(2)e)(-1), respectively. Thus, NCS can contribute substantially to China's Nationally Determined Contributions over the next 10 to 40 years but require a national strategy to reach climate goals and ensure co-benefits for people and nature.Managing natural systems to mitigation climate change is a key strategy for limiting warming. In China, such natural climate solutions could offset 6% of CO2 emissions during 2020-2030, contributing to mitigation goals but highlighting the importance of emissions reductions.

AB - Natural climate solutions (NCS) are strategies for climate mitigation in the land sector that increase carbon storage or avoid GHG emissions. Here we estimate China's historic NCS mitigation at 0.6 (0.5-0.7) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) (95% CI) during 2000-2020 (8% of fossil CO2 emissions in the contemporary period). Through new NCS activities, the future maximum potential for NCS is projected at 0.6 (0.3-1.0) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) (6% of fossil CO2 emissions) during 2020-2030 and 1.0 (0.6-1.4) PgCO(2)e yr(-1) during 2020-2060. Of the future NCS potentials, 26-31%, 62-65% and 90-91% can be achieved at mitigation costs of US$10, US$50 and US$100 (MgCO(2)e)(-1), respectively. Thus, NCS can contribute substantially to China's Nationally Determined Contributions over the next 10 to 40 years but require a national strategy to reach climate goals and ensure co-benefits for people and nature.Managing natural systems to mitigation climate change is a key strategy for limiting warming. In China, such natural climate solutions could offset 6% of CO2 emissions during 2020-2030, contributing to mitigation goals but highlighting the importance of emissions reductions.

KW - ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

KW - SOCIAL COST

KW - CARBON

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-022-01432-3

DO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01432-3

M3 - Article

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 12

SP - 847

EP - 853

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 9

ER -

Biophysical and Economic Constraints on China’s Natural Climate Solutions

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Data Availability Statement

Keywords

UN SDGs

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