Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

Pete Smith; Steven J. Davis; Felix Creutzig; Sabine Fuss; Jan Minx; Benoit Gabrielle; Etsushi Kato; Robert B. Jackson; Annette Cowie; Elmar Kriegler; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Joeri Rogelj; Philippe Ciais; Jennifer Milne; Josep G. Canadell; David McCollum; Glen Peters; Robbie Andrew; Volker Krey; Gyami Shrestha; Pierre Friedlingstein; Thomas Gasser; Arnulf Gruebler; Wolfgang K. Heidug; Matthias Jonas; Chris D. Jones; Florian Kraxner; Emma Littleton; Jason Lowe; Jose Roberto Moreira; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; Michael Obersteiner; Anand Patwardhan; Mathis Rogner; Ed Rubin; Ayyoob Sharifi; Asbjorn Torvanger; Yoshiki Yamagata; Jae Edmonds; Yongsung Cho

doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2870

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

Pete Smith^*, Steven J. Davis, Felix Creutzig, Sabine Fuss, Jan Minx, Benoit Gabrielle, Etsushi Kato, Robert B. Jackson, Annette Cowie, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Joeri Rogelj, Philippe Ciais, Jennifer Milne, Josep G. Canadell, David McCollum, Glen Peters, Robbie Andrew, Volker Krey, Gyami ShresthaPierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Gasser, Arnulf Gruebler, Wolfgang K. Heidug, Matthias Jonas, Chris D. Jones, Florian Kraxner, Emma Littleton, Jason Lowe, Jose Roberto Moreira, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Michael Obersteiner, Anand Patwardhan, Mathis Rogner, Ed Rubin, Ayyoob Sharifi, Asbjorn Torvanger, Yoshiki Yamagata, Jae Edmonds, Yongsung Cho

^*Corresponding author for this work

Aberdeen Centre For Environmental Sustainability

Research output: Contribution to journal › Literature review › peer-review

785 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 degrees C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	42-50
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	6
Early online date	7 Dec 2015
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2870
Publication status	Published - Jan 2016

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This is the author's final manuscript as accepted for publication in Nature Communications http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n1/full/nclimate2870.html
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Pete Smith
- Biological Sciences, Aberdeen Centre For Environmental Sustainability - Chair in Plant & Soil Science
Person: Academic

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Smith, P., Davis, S. J., Creutzig, F., Fuss, S., Minx, J., Gabrielle, B., Kato, E., Jackson, R. B., Cowie, A., Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D. P., Rogelj, J., Ciais, P., Milne, J., Canadell, J. G., McCollum, D., Peters, G., Andrew, R., Krey, V., ... Cho, Y. (2016). Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions. Nature Climate Change, 6, 42-50. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2870

Smith, P, Davis, SJ, Creutzig, F, Fuss, S, Minx, J, Gabrielle, B, Kato, E, Jackson, RB, Cowie, A, Kriegler, E, van Vuuren, DP, Rogelj, J, Ciais, P, Milne, J, Canadell, JG, McCollum, D, Peters, G, Andrew, R, Krey, V, Shrestha, G, Friedlingstein, P, Gasser, T, Gruebler, A, Heidug, WK, Jonas, M, Jones, CD, Kraxner, F, Littleton, E, Lowe, J, Moreira, JR, Nakicenovic, N, Obersteiner, M, Patwardhan, A, Rogner, M, Rubin, E, Sharifi, A, Torvanger, A, Yamagata, Y, Edmonds, J & Cho, Y 2016, 'Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions', Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 42-50. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2870

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title = "Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions",

abstract = "To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 degrees C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.",

author = "Pete Smith and Davis, {Steven J.} and Felix Creutzig and Sabine Fuss and Jan Minx and Benoit Gabrielle and Etsushi Kato and Jackson, {Robert B.} and Annette Cowie and Elmar Kriegler and {van Vuuren}, {Detlef P.} and Joeri Rogelj and Philippe Ciais and Jennifer Milne and Canadell, {Josep G.} and David McCollum and Glen Peters and Robbie Andrew and Volker Krey and Gyami Shrestha and Pierre Friedlingstein and Thomas Gasser and Arnulf Gruebler and Heidug, {Wolfgang K.} and Matthias Jonas and Jones, {Chris D.} and Florian Kraxner and Emma Littleton and Jason Lowe and Moreira, {Jose Roberto} and Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Michael Obersteiner and Anand Patwardhan and Mathis Rogner and Ed Rubin and Ayyoob Sharifi and Asbjorn Torvanger and Yoshiki Yamagata and Jae Edmonds and Yongsung Cho",

note = "Acknowledgements The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not represent those of a particular governmental agency or interagency body. This analysis was initiated at a Global Carbon Project meeting on NETs in Laxenburg, Austria, in April 2013 and contributes to the MaGNET program (http://www.cger.nies.go.jp/gcp/magnet.html). G.P.P. was supported by the Norwegian Research Council (236296). C.D.J. was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). J.G.C. acknowledges support from the Australian Climate Change Science Program. E.Ka. and Y.Y. were supported by the ERTDF (S-10) from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.",

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AU - Smith, Pete

AU - Davis, Steven J.

AU - Creutzig, Felix

AU - Fuss, Sabine

AU - Minx, Jan

AU - Gabrielle, Benoit

AU - Kato, Etsushi

AU - Jackson, Robert B.

AU - Cowie, Annette

AU - Kriegler, Elmar

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.

AU - Rogelj, Joeri

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Milne, Jennifer

AU - Canadell, Josep G.

AU - McCollum, David

AU - Peters, Glen

AU - Andrew, Robbie

AU - Krey, Volker

AU - Shrestha, Gyami

AU - Friedlingstein, Pierre

AU - Gasser, Thomas

AU - Gruebler, Arnulf

AU - Heidug, Wolfgang K.

AU - Jonas, Matthias

AU - Jones, Chris D.

AU - Kraxner, Florian

AU - Littleton, Emma

AU - Lowe, Jason

AU - Moreira, Jose Roberto

AU - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

AU - Obersteiner, Michael

AU - Patwardhan, Anand

AU - Rogner, Mathis

AU - Rubin, Ed

AU - Sharifi, Ayyoob

AU - Torvanger, Asbjorn

AU - Yamagata, Yoshiki

AU - Edmonds, Jae

AU - Cho, Yongsung

N1 - Acknowledgements The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not represent those of a particular governmental agency or interagency body. This analysis was initiated at a Global Carbon Project meeting on NETs in Laxenburg, Austria, in April 2013 and contributes to the MaGNET program (http://www.cger.nies.go.jp/gcp/magnet.html). G.P.P. was supported by the Norwegian Research Council (236296). C.D.J. was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). J.G.C. acknowledges support from the Australian Climate Change Science Program. E.Ka. and Y.Y. were supported by the ERTDF (S-10) from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

PY - 2016/1

Y1 - 2016/1

N2 - To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 degrees C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.

AB - To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 degrees C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.

U2 - 10.1038/NCLIMATE2870

DO - 10.1038/NCLIMATE2870

M3 - Literature review

VL - 6

SP - 42

EP - 50

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

SN - 1758-678X

ER -

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

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