Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990-2070: comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

Peter Smith, Joanne Ursula Smith, U. Franko, K. Kuka, V. Romanenkov, L. K. Shevtsova, Martin Wattenbach, Pia Gottschalk, O. Sirotenko, D. I. Rukhovich, P. V. Koroleva, I. A. Romanenko, N. V. Lisovoi

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Abstract

Three soil carbon models (RothC, CANDY and the Model of Humus Balance) were used to estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural mineral soil carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine using detailed spatial data on land-use, future land-use, cropping patterns, agricultural management, climate and soil type. Scenarios of climate were derived from the Hadley Centre climate Version 3 (HadCM3) model; future yields were determined using the Soil-Climate-Yield model, and land use was determined from regional agricultural and economic data and a model of agricultural economics. The models suggest that optimal management, which entails the replacement of row crops with other crops, and the use of extra years of grass in the rotation could reduce Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine by 30-44% compared to the business-as-usual management. The environmentally sustainable management scenario (SUS), though applied for a limited area within the total region, suggests that much of this optimisation could be realised without damaging profitability for farmers.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)105-119
Number of pages15
JournalRegional Environmental Change
Volume7
Issue number2
Early online date18 Apr 2007
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2007

Keywords

  • soil carbon
  • model
  • sustainability
  • climate change
  • impact
  • RothC
  • candy
  • model of humus balance
  • long-term experiments
  • projected changes
  • CO2 emissions
  • sequestration
  • dynamics
  • agriculture
  • management
  • budget
  • scale
  • sink

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    Smith, P., Smith, J. U., Franko, U., Kuka, K., Romanenkov, V., Shevtsova, L. K., Wattenbach, M., Gottschalk, P., Sirotenko, O., Rukhovich, D. I., Koroleva, P. V., Romanenko, I. A., & Lisovoi, N. V. (2007). Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990-2070: comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation. Regional Environmental Change, 7(2), 105-119. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-007-0028-2