Climate predictions: the influence of nonlinearity and randomness

J. Michael T. Thompson, Jan Sieber

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The current threat of global warming and the public demand for confident projections of climate change pose the ultimate challenge to science: predicting the future behaviour of a system of such overwhelming complexity as the Earth's climate. This Theme Issue addresses two practical problems that make even prediction of the statistical properties of the climate, when treated as the attractor of a chaotic system (the weather), so challenging. The first is that even for the most detailed models, these statistical properties of the attractor show systematic biases. The second is that the attractor may undergo sudden large-scale changes on a time scale that is fast compared with the gradual change of the forcing (the so-called climate tipping).
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1007-1011
Number of pages5
JournalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences
Volume370
Issue number1962
Early online date30 Jan 2012
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 Mar 2012

Fingerprint

Chaotic systems
Global warming
Climate change
Climate
Randomness
climate
Attractor
Earth (planet)
nonlinearity
Nonlinearity
Statistical property
Prediction
predictions
Global Warming
global warming
Climate Change
climate change
weather
Weather
Chaotic System

Keywords

  • stochastic closure
  • climate tipping
  • statistical modelling
  • time-series analysis
  • thermodynamics

Cite this

Climate predictions : the influence of nonlinearity and randomness. / Thompson, J. Michael T.; Sieber, Jan.

In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences, Vol. 370, No. 1962, 13.03.2012, p. 1007-1011.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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