Cognitive Test Scores and Progressive Cognitive Decline in the Aberdeen 1921 and 1936 Birth Cohorts

The Aberdeen birth cohorts of 1921 and 1936 (ABC21 and ABC36) were subjected to IQ tests in 1932 or 1947 when they were aged about 11y. They were recruited between 1997–2001 among cognitively healthy community residents and comprehensively phenotyped in a long-term study of brain aging and health up to 2017. Here, we report associations between baseline cognitive test scores and long-term cognitive outcomes. On recruitment, significant sex differences within and between the ABC21 and ABC36 cohorts supported advantages in verbal ability and learning among the ABC36 women that were not significant in ABC21. Comorbid physical disorders were self-reported in both ABC21 and ABC36 but did not contribute to differences in terms of performance in cognitive tests. When used alone without other criteria, cognitive tests scores which fell below the −1.5 SD criterion for tests of progressive matrices, namely verbal learning, digit symbol and block design, did not support the concept that Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) is a stable class of acquired loss of function with significant links to the later emergence of a clinical dementia syndrome. This is consistent with many previous reports. Furthermore, because childhood IQ-type data were available, we showed that a lower cognitive performance at about 64 or 78 y than that predicted by IQ at 11 ± 0.5 y did not improve the prediction of progress to MCI or greater cognitive loss. We used binary logistic regression to explore how MCI might contribute to the prediction of later progress to a clinical dementia syndrome. In a fully adjusted model using ABC21 data, we found that non-amnestic MCI, along with factors such as female sex and depressive symptoms, contributed to the prediction of later dementia. A comparable model using ABC36 data did not do so. We propose that (1) MCI criteria restricted to cognitive test scores do not improve the temporal stability of MCI classifications; (2) pathways towards dementia may differ according to age at dementia onset and (3) the concept of MCI may require measures (not captured here) that underly self-reported subjective age-related cognitive decline.