Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations

Mike Lonergan, Ailsa Hall, Hal Thompson, Paul Michael Thompson, Paddy Pomeroy, John Harwood

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In 1988 and 2002 dramatic and well-documented phocine distemper epizootics occurred in Europe. While their progression and impact were remarkably similar and consistent over much of Europe, mortality in the UK varied greatly between and within the 2 epizootics. We use antibody levels in blood samples to show that 51 % (Bayesian 95 % CI: 41 to 61 %) of the individuals alive in 5 UK harbour seal populations at the end of the 1988 epizootic had been exposed to the virus, and that the equivalent figure after the 2002 outbreak was 22 % (95 % CI: 16 to 30 %). Antibody prevalence was significantly higher in females than males after the 2002 epizootic. Combining these estimates with information on reductions in the numbers of annuals observed hauled out during surveys of the Wash, Moray Firth, and Orkney populations and a simple epidemiological model, suggests that. the differences between the 2 epizootics were primarily clue to a 27 % (95 % CI: 8 to 43 %) fall in R-0, the basic reproductive rate of the Virus. The large geographic variation in population effects observed within the UK during each epizootic appears to have been mainly due to differences in case mortality, with R-0 being remarkably similar in all the populations investigated.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)183-188
Number of pages6
JournalDiseases of Aquatic Organisms
Volume88
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 17 Feb 2010

Keywords

  • epidemic
  • epidemiology
  • mathematical model
  • pinniped
  • common seal
  • Northeast Scotland
  • virus
  • abundance
  • antibodies
  • outbreak
  • declines
  • disease
  • Europe
  • Epidemic
  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical model
  • Pinniped

Cite this

Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations. / Lonergan, Mike; Hall, Ailsa ; Thompson, Hal; Thompson, Paul Michael; Pomeroy, Paddy; Harwood, John.

In: Diseases of Aquatic Organisms, Vol. 88, No. 3, 17.02.2010, p. 183-188.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Lonergan, Mike ; Hall, Ailsa ; Thompson, Hal ; Thompson, Paul Michael ; Pomeroy, Paddy ; Harwood, John. / Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations. In: Diseases of Aquatic Organisms. 2010 ; Vol. 88, No. 3. pp. 183-188.
@article{e5f58b382f6943cdb19b72e75897da25,
title = "Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations",
abstract = "In 1988 and 2002 dramatic and well-documented phocine distemper epizootics occurred in Europe. While their progression and impact were remarkably similar and consistent over much of Europe, mortality in the UK varied greatly between and within the 2 epizootics. We use antibody levels in blood samples to show that 51 {\%} (Bayesian 95 {\%} CI: 41 to 61 {\%}) of the individuals alive in 5 UK harbour seal populations at the end of the 1988 epizootic had been exposed to the virus, and that the equivalent figure after the 2002 outbreak was 22 {\%} (95 {\%} CI: 16 to 30 {\%}). Antibody prevalence was significantly higher in females than males after the 2002 epizootic. Combining these estimates with information on reductions in the numbers of annuals observed hauled out during surveys of the Wash, Moray Firth, and Orkney populations and a simple epidemiological model, suggests that. the differences between the 2 epizootics were primarily clue to a 27 {\%} (95 {\%} CI: 8 to 43 {\%}) fall in R-0, the basic reproductive rate of the Virus. The large geographic variation in population effects observed within the UK during each epizootic appears to have been mainly due to differences in case mortality, with R-0 being remarkably similar in all the populations investigated.",
keywords = "epidemic, epidemiology, mathematical model, pinniped, common seal, Northeast Scotland, virus, abundance, antibodies, outbreak, declines, disease, Europe, Epidemic , Epidemiology , Mathematical model , Pinniped",
author = "Mike Lonergan and Ailsa Hall and Hal Thompson and Thompson, {Paul Michael} and Paddy Pomeroy and John Harwood",
year = "2010",
month = "2",
day = "17",
doi = "10.3354/dao02153",
language = "English",
volume = "88",
pages = "183--188",
journal = "Diseases of Aquatic Organisms",
issn = "0177-5103",
publisher = "Inter-Research",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations

AU - Lonergan, Mike

AU - Hall, Ailsa

AU - Thompson, Hal

AU - Thompson, Paul Michael

AU - Pomeroy, Paddy

AU - Harwood, John

PY - 2010/2/17

Y1 - 2010/2/17

N2 - In 1988 and 2002 dramatic and well-documented phocine distemper epizootics occurred in Europe. While their progression and impact were remarkably similar and consistent over much of Europe, mortality in the UK varied greatly between and within the 2 epizootics. We use antibody levels in blood samples to show that 51 % (Bayesian 95 % CI: 41 to 61 %) of the individuals alive in 5 UK harbour seal populations at the end of the 1988 epizootic had been exposed to the virus, and that the equivalent figure after the 2002 outbreak was 22 % (95 % CI: 16 to 30 %). Antibody prevalence was significantly higher in females than males after the 2002 epizootic. Combining these estimates with information on reductions in the numbers of annuals observed hauled out during surveys of the Wash, Moray Firth, and Orkney populations and a simple epidemiological model, suggests that. the differences between the 2 epizootics were primarily clue to a 27 % (95 % CI: 8 to 43 %) fall in R-0, the basic reproductive rate of the Virus. The large geographic variation in population effects observed within the UK during each epizootic appears to have been mainly due to differences in case mortality, with R-0 being remarkably similar in all the populations investigated.

AB - In 1988 and 2002 dramatic and well-documented phocine distemper epizootics occurred in Europe. While their progression and impact were remarkably similar and consistent over much of Europe, mortality in the UK varied greatly between and within the 2 epizootics. We use antibody levels in blood samples to show that 51 % (Bayesian 95 % CI: 41 to 61 %) of the individuals alive in 5 UK harbour seal populations at the end of the 1988 epizootic had been exposed to the virus, and that the equivalent figure after the 2002 outbreak was 22 % (95 % CI: 16 to 30 %). Antibody prevalence was significantly higher in females than males after the 2002 epizootic. Combining these estimates with information on reductions in the numbers of annuals observed hauled out during surveys of the Wash, Moray Firth, and Orkney populations and a simple epidemiological model, suggests that. the differences between the 2 epizootics were primarily clue to a 27 % (95 % CI: 8 to 43 %) fall in R-0, the basic reproductive rate of the Virus. The large geographic variation in population effects observed within the UK during each epizootic appears to have been mainly due to differences in case mortality, with R-0 being remarkably similar in all the populations investigated.

KW - epidemic

KW - epidemiology

KW - mathematical model

KW - pinniped

KW - common seal

KW - Northeast Scotland

KW - virus

KW - abundance

KW - antibodies

KW - outbreak

KW - declines

KW - disease

KW - Europe

KW - Epidemic

KW - Epidemiology

KW - Mathematical model

KW - Pinniped

U2 - 10.3354/dao02153

DO - 10.3354/dao02153

M3 - Article

VL - 88

SP - 183

EP - 188

JO - Diseases of Aquatic Organisms

JF - Diseases of Aquatic Organisms

SN - 0177-5103

IS - 3

ER -