Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5°C World

Stephanie Roe (Corresponding Author), Charlotte Streck, Michael Obersteiner, Stefan Frank, Bronson Griscom, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Mykola Gusti, Nancy Harris, Tomoko Hasegawa, Zeke Hausfather, Petr Havlík, Jo House, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Alexander Popp, María José Sanz Sánchez, Jonathan Sanderman, Pete Smith, Elke Stehfest, Deborah Lawrence

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we combine modelling and a meta-analysis of mitigation strategies to develop a land sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5°C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector (agriculture, forestry, wetlands, bioenergy) towards more sustainable practices could contribute ~30% (15 GtCO2e/yr) of the global mitigation needed in 2050 to deliver on the 1.5°C target, however it will require substantially more ambitious effort than the 2˚C target. Addressing risks, barriers and incentives are necessary to scale up mitigation while maximizing sustainable development, food security, and environmental co-benefits.
Original languageEnglish
JournalNature Climate Change
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 16 Aug 2019

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mitigation
bioenergy
wetland
forestry
sustainable development
agriculture
incentive
meta-analysis
food
food security
warming
modeling
land
world
temperature

Cite this

Roe, S., Streck, C., Obersteiner, M., Frank, S., Griscom, B., Drouet, L., ... Lawrence, D. (Accepted/In press). Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5°C World. Nature Climate Change.

Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5°C World. / Roe, Stephanie (Corresponding Author); Streck, Charlotte; Obersteiner, Michael; Frank, Stefan; Griscom, Bronson; Drouet, Laurent; Fricko, Oliver; Gusti, Mykola; Harris, Nancy; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Hausfather, Zeke; Havlík, Petr ; House, Jo; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Popp, Alexander; Sanz Sánchez, María José; Sanderman, Jonathan ; Smith, Pete; Stehfest, Elke ; Lawrence, Deborah.

In: Nature Climate Change, 16.08.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Roe, S, Streck, C, Obersteiner, M, Frank, S, Griscom, B, Drouet, L, Fricko, O, Gusti, M, Harris, N, Hasegawa, T, Hausfather, Z, Havlík, P, House, J, Nabuurs, G-J, Popp, A, Sanz Sánchez, MJ, Sanderman, J, Smith, P, Stehfest, E & Lawrence, D 2019, 'Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5°C World' Nature Climate Change.
Roe S, Streck C, Obersteiner M, Frank S, Griscom B, Drouet L et al. Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5°C World. Nature Climate Change. 2019 Aug 16.
Roe, Stephanie ; Streck, Charlotte ; Obersteiner, Michael ; Frank, Stefan ; Griscom, Bronson ; Drouet, Laurent ; Fricko, Oliver ; Gusti, Mykola ; Harris, Nancy ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Hausfather, Zeke ; Havlík, Petr ; House, Jo ; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan ; Popp, Alexander ; Sanz Sánchez, María José ; Sanderman, Jonathan ; Smith, Pete ; Stehfest, Elke ; Lawrence, Deborah. / Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5°C World. In: Nature Climate Change. 2019.
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abstract = "The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we combine modelling and a meta-analysis of mitigation strategies to develop a land sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5°C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector (agriculture, forestry, wetlands, bioenergy) towards more sustainable practices could contribute ~30{\%} (15 GtCO2e/yr) of the global mitigation needed in 2050 to deliver on the 1.5°C target, however it will require substantially more ambitious effort than the 2˚C target. Addressing risks, barriers and incentives are necessary to scale up mitigation while maximizing sustainable development, food security, and environmental co-benefits.",
author = "Stephanie Roe and Charlotte Streck and Michael Obersteiner and Stefan Frank and Bronson Griscom and Laurent Drouet and Oliver Fricko and Mykola Gusti and Nancy Harris and Tomoko Hasegawa and Zeke Hausfather and Petr Havl{\'i}k and Jo House and Gert-Jan Nabuurs and Alexander Popp and {Sanz S{\'a}nchez}, {Mar{\'i}a Jos{\'e}} and Jonathan Sanderman and Pete Smith and Elke Stehfest and Deborah Lawrence",
note = "Acknowledgements The analysis in this study was guided by the valuable feedback and recommendations of expert consultations and interviews, and we extend our gratitude to all those individuals who contributed to our research and analysis: Jeff Atkins (Virginia Commonwealth University), Jonah Busch (Earth Innovation Institute), Peter Ellis (The Nature Conservancy), Jason Funk (Center for Carbon Removal), Trisha Gopalakrishna (The Nature Conservancy), Alan Kroeger (Climate Focus), Bernice Lee (Chatham House), Donna Lee (Climate and Land Use Alliance), Simon Lewis (University College London), Guy Lomax (The Nature Conservancy), Dann Mitchell (University of Bristol), Raoni Raj{\~a}o (University of Minas Gerais), Joeri Rogelj (IIASA), Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (Climate Analytics), Paul West (University of Minnesota), Graham Wynne (Prince of Wales International Sustainability Unit), Ana Yang (Children’s Investment Fund Foundation) and Dan Zarin (Climate and Land Use Alliance). A special thank you to Esther Chak and Mary-Jo Valentino (Imaginary Office) for designing the figures in this study. This work was generously supported by the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation and the authors’ institutions and funding sources.",
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AU - Sanz Sánchez, María José

AU - Sanderman, Jonathan

AU - Smith, Pete

AU - Stehfest, Elke

AU - Lawrence, Deborah

N1 - Acknowledgements The analysis in this study was guided by the valuable feedback and recommendations of expert consultations and interviews, and we extend our gratitude to all those individuals who contributed to our research and analysis: Jeff Atkins (Virginia Commonwealth University), Jonah Busch (Earth Innovation Institute), Peter Ellis (The Nature Conservancy), Jason Funk (Center for Carbon Removal), Trisha Gopalakrishna (The Nature Conservancy), Alan Kroeger (Climate Focus), Bernice Lee (Chatham House), Donna Lee (Climate and Land Use Alliance), Simon Lewis (University College London), Guy Lomax (The Nature Conservancy), Dann Mitchell (University of Bristol), Raoni Rajão (University of Minas Gerais), Joeri Rogelj (IIASA), Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (Climate Analytics), Paul West (University of Minnesota), Graham Wynne (Prince of Wales International Sustainability Unit), Ana Yang (Children’s Investment Fund Foundation) and Dan Zarin (Climate and Land Use Alliance). A special thank you to Esther Chak and Mary-Jo Valentino (Imaginary Office) for designing the figures in this study. This work was generously supported by the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation and the authors’ institutions and funding sources.

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N2 - The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we combine modelling and a meta-analysis of mitigation strategies to develop a land sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5°C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector (agriculture, forestry, wetlands, bioenergy) towards more sustainable practices could contribute ~30% (15 GtCO2e/yr) of the global mitigation needed in 2050 to deliver on the 1.5°C target, however it will require substantially more ambitious effort than the 2˚C target. Addressing risks, barriers and incentives are necessary to scale up mitigation while maximizing sustainable development, food security, and environmental co-benefits.

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