Decarbonising UK transport:  Implications for electricity generation, land use and policy.

Astley Hastings; John Nelson; Kathryn Logan; Jenny Milne; James Chapman

doi:10.1016/j.trip.2022.100736

Decarbonising UK transport: Implications for electricity generation, land use and policy.

Astley Hastings, John Nelson, Kathryn Logan^* (Corresponding Author), Jenny Milne, James Chapman

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

To ensure net zero, the UK needs to transition from conventionally fuelled transport to low emission alternatives. The impact from increased decarbonised electricity generation on ecosystem services (ES) and natural capital (NC) are not currently quantified, with decarbonisation required to minimise impacts from climate change.

Projecting future electric and hydrogen car, bus, and train energy demand between 2020 and 2050 can assist policymaker understanding of energy type and transport network prioritisation. In this work, predictions of the geospatial impact on ES and NC of renewable energy (onshore/offshore wind and solar), nuclear and fossil fuels were made, considering generation mix, number of generation installations and energy density.

Electric transport will require (136,599 GWh), much less than hydrogen transport (425,532 GWh) for all vehicle’s types in 2050. We estimate that to power electrical transport, at least 1,515km2 will be required for solar, 1,672 km2 for wind and 5 km2 for nuclear by 2050. Hydrogen approximately doubles this requirement. Combined electric and hydrogen will be needed to accommodate the range of socioeconomic requirements. Further reduction in energy usage will minimise impacts on ES and NC, with policies targeting a modal shift to public transport ensuring a more sustainable transport infrastructure in the future.

Original language	English
Article number	100736
Number of pages	16
Journal	Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
Volume	17
Early online date	17 Dec 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2022.100736
Publication status	Published - Jan 2023

Keywords

Low carbon transport
Electricity generation
Hydrogen generation
Ecosystem services
Natural capital
Land use change

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

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title = "Decarbonising UK transport: Implications for electricity generation, land use and policy.",

abstract = "To ensure net zero, the UK needs to transition from conventionally fuelled transport to low emission alternatives. The impact from increased decarbonised electricity generation on ecosystem services (ES) and natural capital (NC) are not currently quantified, with decarbonisation required to minimise impacts from climate change.Projecting future electric and hydrogen car, bus, and train energy demand between 2020 and 2050 can assist policymaker understanding of energy type and transport network prioritisation. In this work, predictions of the geospatial impact on ES and NC of renewable energy (onshore/offshore wind and solar), nuclear and fossil fuels were made, considering generation mix, number of generation installations and energy density.Electric transport will require (136,599 GWh), much less than hydrogen transport (425,532 GWh) for all vehicle{\textquoteright}s types in 2050. We estimate that to power electrical transport, at least 1,515km2 will be required for solar, 1,672 km2 for wind and 5 km2 for nuclear by 2050. Hydrogen approximately doubles this requirement. Combined electric and hydrogen will be needed to accommodate the range of socioeconomic requirements. Further reduction in energy usage will minimise impacts on ES and NC, with policies targeting a modal shift to public transport ensuring a more sustainable transport infrastructure in the future. ",

keywords = "Low carbon transport, Electricity generation, Hydrogen generation, Ecosystem services, Natural capital, Land use change",

author = "Astley Hastings and John Nelson and Kathryn Logan and Jenny Milne and James Chapman",

note = "This research was undertaken as part of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) research programme under the ADdressing Valuation of Energy and Nature Together (ADVENT) project, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/M019691/1) United Kingdom. Funding was also received from the School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom. The authors would also like to thank Dr Christian Brand, University of Oxford, for giving them access to the Transport Energy and Air Pollution Model UK (TEAM – UK). ",

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AU - Chapman, James

N1 - This research was undertaken as part of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) research programme under the ADdressing Valuation of Energy and Nature Together (ADVENT) project, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/M019691/1) United Kingdom. Funding was also received from the School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom. The authors would also like to thank Dr Christian Brand, University of Oxford, for giving them access to the Transport Energy and Air Pollution Model UK (TEAM – UK).

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N2 - To ensure net zero, the UK needs to transition from conventionally fuelled transport to low emission alternatives. The impact from increased decarbonised electricity generation on ecosystem services (ES) and natural capital (NC) are not currently quantified, with decarbonisation required to minimise impacts from climate change.Projecting future electric and hydrogen car, bus, and train energy demand between 2020 and 2050 can assist policymaker understanding of energy type and transport network prioritisation. In this work, predictions of the geospatial impact on ES and NC of renewable energy (onshore/offshore wind and solar), nuclear and fossil fuels were made, considering generation mix, number of generation installations and energy density.Electric transport will require (136,599 GWh), much less than hydrogen transport (425,532 GWh) for all vehicle’s types in 2050. We estimate that to power electrical transport, at least 1,515km2 will be required for solar, 1,672 km2 for wind and 5 km2 for nuclear by 2050. Hydrogen approximately doubles this requirement. Combined electric and hydrogen will be needed to accommodate the range of socioeconomic requirements. Further reduction in energy usage will minimise impacts on ES and NC, with policies targeting a modal shift to public transport ensuring a more sustainable transport infrastructure in the future.

AB - To ensure net zero, the UK needs to transition from conventionally fuelled transport to low emission alternatives. The impact from increased decarbonised electricity generation on ecosystem services (ES) and natural capital (NC) are not currently quantified, with decarbonisation required to minimise impacts from climate change.Projecting future electric and hydrogen car, bus, and train energy demand between 2020 and 2050 can assist policymaker understanding of energy type and transport network prioritisation. In this work, predictions of the geospatial impact on ES and NC of renewable energy (onshore/offshore wind and solar), nuclear and fossil fuels were made, considering generation mix, number of generation installations and energy density.Electric transport will require (136,599 GWh), much less than hydrogen transport (425,532 GWh) for all vehicle’s types in 2050. We estimate that to power electrical transport, at least 1,515km2 will be required for solar, 1,672 km2 for wind and 5 km2 for nuclear by 2050. Hydrogen approximately doubles this requirement. Combined electric and hydrogen will be needed to accommodate the range of socioeconomic requirements. Further reduction in energy usage will minimise impacts on ES and NC, with policies targeting a modal shift to public transport ensuring a more sustainable transport infrastructure in the future.

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