Demography of Anglicans in Sub-Saharan Africa: Estimating the Population of Anglicans in Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda

Andrew McKinnon* (Corresponding Author)

*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

ABSTRACT: There is an emerging debate about the growth of Anglicanism in subSaharan Africa. With this debate in mind, this paper uses four statistically representative surveys of sub-Saharan Africa to estimate the relative and absolute number who identify as Anglican in five countries: Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda. The results for Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania are broadly consistent with previous scholarly assessments. The findings on Nigeria and Uganda, the two largest provinces, are likely to be more controversial. The evidence from
representative surveys finds that the claims often made of the Church of Nigeria consisting of “over 18 million” exceedingly unlikely; the best statistical estimate is that under 8 million Nigerians identify as Anglican. The evidence presented here
shows that Uganda (rather than Nigeria) has the strongest claim to being the largest Province in Africa. However, there is also good evidence that strongly suggests that the church has proportionately fewer adherents than is usually assumed. Evidence from the Ugandan Census of Populations and Households also suggests the proportion of Ugandans that identify as Anglican is in decline, even if absolute numbers have been growing, driven by population growth.
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Anglican Studies
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 21 Jan 2020

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demography
Uganda
Tanzania
Kenya
Nigeria
evidence
church
population growth
census

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title = "Demography of Anglicans in Sub-Saharan Africa: Estimating the Population of Anglicans in Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda",
abstract = "ABSTRACT: There is an emerging debate about the growth of Anglicanism in subSaharan Africa. With this debate in mind, this paper uses four statistically representative surveys of sub-Saharan Africa to estimate the relative and absolute number who identify as Anglican in five countries: Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda. The results for Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania are broadly consistent with previous scholarly assessments. The findings on Nigeria and Uganda, the two largest provinces, are likely to be more controversial. The evidence fromrepresentative surveys finds that the claims often made of the Church of Nigeria consisting of “over 18 million” exceedingly unlikely; the best statistical estimate is that under 8 million Nigerians identify as Anglican. The evidence presented hereshows that Uganda (rather than Nigeria) has the strongest claim to being the largest Province in Africa. However, there is also good evidence that strongly suggests that the church has proportionately fewer adherents than is usually assumed. Evidence from the Ugandan Census of Populations and Households also suggests the proportion of Ugandans that identify as Anglican is in decline, even if absolute numbers have been growing, driven by population growth.",
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N2 - ABSTRACT: There is an emerging debate about the growth of Anglicanism in subSaharan Africa. With this debate in mind, this paper uses four statistically representative surveys of sub-Saharan Africa to estimate the relative and absolute number who identify as Anglican in five countries: Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda. The results for Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania are broadly consistent with previous scholarly assessments. The findings on Nigeria and Uganda, the two largest provinces, are likely to be more controversial. The evidence fromrepresentative surveys finds that the claims often made of the Church of Nigeria consisting of “over 18 million” exceedingly unlikely; the best statistical estimate is that under 8 million Nigerians identify as Anglican. The evidence presented hereshows that Uganda (rather than Nigeria) has the strongest claim to being the largest Province in Africa. However, there is also good evidence that strongly suggests that the church has proportionately fewer adherents than is usually assumed. Evidence from the Ugandan Census of Populations and Households also suggests the proportion of Ugandans that identify as Anglican is in decline, even if absolute numbers have been growing, driven by population growth.

AB - ABSTRACT: There is an emerging debate about the growth of Anglicanism in subSaharan Africa. With this debate in mind, this paper uses four statistically representative surveys of sub-Saharan Africa to estimate the relative and absolute number who identify as Anglican in five countries: Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda. The results for Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania are broadly consistent with previous scholarly assessments. The findings on Nigeria and Uganda, the two largest provinces, are likely to be more controversial. The evidence fromrepresentative surveys finds that the claims often made of the Church of Nigeria consisting of “over 18 million” exceedingly unlikely; the best statistical estimate is that under 8 million Nigerians identify as Anglican. The evidence presented hereshows that Uganda (rather than Nigeria) has the strongest claim to being the largest Province in Africa. However, there is also good evidence that strongly suggests that the church has proportionately fewer adherents than is usually assumed. Evidence from the Ugandan Census of Populations and Households also suggests the proportion of Ugandans that identify as Anglican is in decline, even if absolute numbers have been growing, driven by population growth.

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