Abstract
The possible role of pathogens in rodent population cycles has been largely neglected since Elton's 'epidemic hypothesis' of 1931. To revisit this question, 12 adjacent, cyclic but out-of-phase populations of field roles (Microtus agrestis) in North East England were studied and the initial results are presented here. The prevalences of antibodies to cowpox virus and of clinical signs of Mycobacterium microti infection (vole tuberculosis) showed delayed (not direct) density dependence (with a lag of three to six months). This did not result from changes in population structure, even though there were such changes associated with the different phases of the cycle. The prevalences rose as vole numbers rose, and peaked as numbers declined. The apparent lag in the numerical response of infection prevalence to changes in host abundance is consistent with the hypothesis that diseases, singly or in combination, play a hitherto underestimated role in the dynamics of cyclic populations.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 859-867 |
Number of pages | 8 |
Journal | Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. B, Biological Sciences |
Volume | 271 |
Issue number | 1541 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Apr 2004 |
Keywords
- population cycles
- disease transmission
- time delays
- host-pathogen dynamics
- numerical response
- red grouse
- in-field
- transmission dynamics
- rodent populations
- reservoir hosts
- bank voles
- density
- prevalence
- infection
- persistence