Does agricultural trade liberalization increase risks of supply-side uncertainty? Effects of productivity shocks and export restrictions on welfare and food supply in Japan

Tetsuji Tanaka, Nobuhiro Hosoe

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    18 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Agriculture is the focus of much contention in free trade negotiations. The Japanese government is against liberalizing the rice trade on the grounds that it would threaten ‘‘national food security’’ in the events of such shocks as crop failure and embargoes. Trade liberalization is expected to make the Japanese economy more dependent upon food imports and, thus, more susceptible to these risks. Using a computable general equilibrium model with a Monte Carlo simulation, we quantify the welfare impacts of productivity shocks and export quotas by major rice exporters to Japan and found little evidence of Japan suffering from such shocks.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)368-377
    Number of pages10
    JournalFood Policy
    Volume36
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Jun 2011

    Fingerprint

    trade liberalization
    agricultural trade
    trade barrier
    Food Supply
    food supply
    Uncertainty
    liberalization
    Shock
    Japan
    rice
    uncertainty
    trade negotiations
    productivity
    welfare
    welfare impact
    supply
    food
    embargo
    computable general equilibrium analysis
    free trade

    Keywords

    • agricultural trade protection
    • food security
    • productivity shocks
    • food self-sufficiency rate
    • emergency stocks

    Cite this

    Does agricultural trade liberalization increase risks of supply-side uncertainty? Effects of productivity shocks and export restrictions on welfare and food supply in Japan. / Tanaka, Tetsuji; Hosoe, Nobuhiro.

    In: Food Policy, Vol. 36, No. 3, 06.2011, p. 368-377.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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