Dynamic Factors and the Predictability of Consumption Growth

Abhay Abhyankar, Olga Klinkowska

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

In this paper we study the predictability of aggregate consumption growth using common factors extracted from a large panel of macroeconomic and financial time series. The stochastic process followed by consumption growth and its predictability by other variables is a key assumption in theoretical models in finance such as consumption-based asset pricing models. Research using empirical data to investigate these aspects of consumption growth is sparse. We find that selected dynamic factors are able to explain up to 36% of the consumption growth variability at quarterly frequency using both in-sample and out-of-sample predictive regressions. We find as well that a single common factor, which summarizes short term interest rates and spreads on bond rates, individually accounts for as much as 23% of this variation. We also conduct a battery of robustness check which further support our main conclusion.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherSocial Science Electronic Publishing
Publication statusUnpublished - Feb 2011

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Abhyankar, A., & Klinkowska, O. (2011). Dynamic Factors and the Predictability of Consumption Growth. Social Science Electronic Publishing. http://ssrn.com/abstract=1927976