Dynamic reliability model for subsea pipeline risk assessment due to third party damage

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

A huge demand for global trade has resulted in substantial growth of maritime traffic in the oceans. As a result, the failure risk of subsea pipelines due to third-party damage near shipping lanes has also considerably increased over time. Several factors that are typically considered in the risk assessment are dropped objects, dragged anchors, sunken ships and jack-up misposition. However, the industrial risk assessment codes still use semi-qualitative approach to analyse the risk, since relevant information is not complete in most of the cases. Given the possibility of a large number of time-variant uncertainties that will be involved in the analysis, Bayesian network approach can be a prospective tool to minimise and overcome the lack of data problem in the risk analysis. It is a reliable technique using well-established theoretical foundations of probability as the base for performing inference to determine the conditional probability distribution. This paper focusses on developing a dynamic Bayesian reliability model for subsea pipeline failure risk estimation analysis due to third party damage. Several types of floaters and structures will be introduced to the model. The proposed reliability assessment technique will be validated by comparing the estimated risk level result with a practical industrial code-based assessment result. It is expected that this technique will provide a reliable option for subsea pipeline reliability assessment due to third party damage.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference
Subtitle of host publicationESREL 2019
EditorsMichael Beer, Enrico Zio
Place of PublicationSingapore
PublisherResearch Publishing Services
Pages2356-2363
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9789811127243
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 26 Sep 2019
Event29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2019 - Hannover, Germany
Duration: 22 Sep 201926 Sep 2019

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2019
PublisherResearch Publishing

Conference

Conference29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2019
CountryGermany
CityHannover
Period22/09/1926/09/19

Keywords

  • Dynamic Bayesian network
  • Reliability model
  • Risk assessment
  • Safety engineering
  • Subsea pipeline
  • Third-party damage

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