Economic Fluctuations and Crime

Temporary and Persistent Effects

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

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Abstract

Purpose: Since the literature on the effect of the unemployment rate as reflection of economic fluctuations on crime shows an empirically ambiguous effect, this study argues that a new way of modelling the dynamics of unemployment and crime by focusing on the transitory and persistent effect of unemployment on crime helps resolve this ambiguity.
Design: Panel data for US states from 1965-2006 are examined using the Mundlak (1978) methodology to incorporate the dynamic interactions between crime and unemployment into the estimation.
Findings: After decomposing the unemployment effect on crime into a transitory and persistent effect, evidence of a strong positive correlation between unemployment and almost all types of crime-rates is unearthed. This evidence is robust to endogeneity and the controlling for cross-panel correlation and indicators for state imprisonment.
Originality: The paper is the first to examine the dynamics of the interaction of crime and economic fluctuations using the temporary and persistent effects framework of Mundlak (1978). In one set of estimates, one can evaluation both the short- and long-run effects of changes of unemployment on crime.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherUniversity of Aberdeen Business School
Number of pages29
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2015

Publication series

NameDiscussion Paper in Economics
PublisherUniversity of Aberdeen
No.7
Volume15
ISSN (Electronic)0143-4543

Fingerprint

Economic fluctuations
Crime
Unemployment
Interaction
Imprisonment
Panel data
Short-run
Unemployment rate
Methodology
U.S. States
Crime rates
Modeling
Endogeneity
Evaluation

Keywords

  • Crime
  • Unemployment
  • Panel models
  • Hausman-Taylor specification

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)

Cite this

Bender, K. A., & Theodossiou, I. (2015). Economic Fluctuations and Crime: Temporary and Persistent Effects. (Discussion Paper in Economics; Vol. 15, No. 7). University of Aberdeen Business School.

Economic Fluctuations and Crime : Temporary and Persistent Effects. / Bender, Keith Allen; Theodossiou, Ioannis.

University of Aberdeen Business School, 2015. (Discussion Paper in Economics; Vol. 15, No. 7).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

Bender, KA & Theodossiou, I 2015 'Economic Fluctuations and Crime: Temporary and Persistent Effects' Discussion Paper in Economics, no. 7, vol. 15, University of Aberdeen Business School.
Bender KA, Theodossiou I. Economic Fluctuations and Crime: Temporary and Persistent Effects. University of Aberdeen Business School. 2015 Sep. (Discussion Paper in Economics; 7).
Bender, Keith Allen ; Theodossiou, Ioannis. / Economic Fluctuations and Crime : Temporary and Persistent Effects. University of Aberdeen Business School, 2015. (Discussion Paper in Economics; 7).
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