Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. II. Application

Jo Smith, Pia Gottschalk, Jessica Bellarby, Stephen Chapman, Allan Lilly, Willie Towers, John Bell, Kevin Coleman, Dali Nayak, Mark Richards, Jon Hillier, Helen Flynn, Martin Wattenbach, Matt Aitkenhead, Jagadeesh Yeluripati, Jennifer Ann Farmer, Ronnie Milne, Amanda Thomson, Chris Evans, Andy Whitmore & 2 others Pete Falloon, Pete Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

29 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In order to predict the response of carbon (C)-rich soils to external change, models are needed that accurately reflect the conditions of these soils. Here we present an example application of the new Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils - Sequestration and Emissions (ECOSSE) model to estimate net change in soil C in response to changes in land use in Scotland. The ECOSSE estimate of annual change in soil C stocks for Scotland between 2000 and 2009 is -810 +/- 89 kt yr(-1), equivalent to 0.037 +/- 0.004% yr(-1). Increasing the area of land-use change from arable to grass has the greatest potential to sequester soil C, and reducing the area of change from grass to arable has the greatest potential to reduce losses of soil C. Across Scotland, simulated changes in soil C from C-rich soils (C content >6%) between 1950 and 2009 is -63 Mt, compared with -35 Mt from non-C-rich mineral soils; losses from C-rich soils between 2000 and 2009 make up 64% of the total soil C losses. One mitigation option that could be used in upland soils to achieve zero net loss of C from Scottish soils is to stop conversion of semi-natural land to grassland and increase conversion of grassland to semi-natural land by 125% relative to the present rate. Mitigation options involving forestry are not included here because the data available to calculate losses of soil C do not account for losses of soil C on drainage of semi-natural land.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)193-205
Number of pages13
JournalClimate Research
Volume45
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Keywords

  • organic soils
  • dynamics simulation modelling
  • changes in soil C stocks
  • land-use change
  • climate change
  • water-table
  • peatland
  • dioxide
  • climate
  • methane
  • fluxes
  • simulation
  • emissions
  • Scotland
  • England

Cite this

Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. II. Application. / Smith, Jo; Gottschalk, Pia; Bellarby, Jessica; Chapman, Stephen; Lilly, Allan; Towers, Willie; Bell, John; Coleman, Kevin; Nayak, Dali; Richards, Mark; Hillier, Jon; Flynn, Helen; Wattenbach, Martin; Aitkenhead, Matt; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Farmer, Jennifer Ann; Milne, Ronnie; Thomson, Amanda; Evans, Chris; Whitmore, Andy; Falloon, Pete; Smith, Pete.

In: Climate Research, Vol. 45, No. 1, 2010, p. 193-205.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Smith, J, Gottschalk, P, Bellarby, J, Chapman, S, Lilly, A, Towers, W, Bell, J, Coleman, K, Nayak, D, Richards, M, Hillier, J, Flynn, H, Wattenbach, M, Aitkenhead, M, Yeluripati, J, Farmer, JA, Milne, R, Thomson, A, Evans, C, Whitmore, A, Falloon, P & Smith, P 2010, 'Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. II. Application', Climate Research, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 193-205. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00902
Smith, Jo ; Gottschalk, Pia ; Bellarby, Jessica ; Chapman, Stephen ; Lilly, Allan ; Towers, Willie ; Bell, John ; Coleman, Kevin ; Nayak, Dali ; Richards, Mark ; Hillier, Jon ; Flynn, Helen ; Wattenbach, Martin ; Aitkenhead, Matt ; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh ; Farmer, Jennifer Ann ; Milne, Ronnie ; Thomson, Amanda ; Evans, Chris ; Whitmore, Andy ; Falloon, Pete ; Smith, Pete. / Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. II. Application. In: Climate Research. 2010 ; Vol. 45, No. 1. pp. 193-205.
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AU - Gottschalk, Pia

AU - Bellarby, Jessica

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AU - Lilly, Allan

AU - Towers, Willie

AU - Bell, John

AU - Coleman, Kevin

AU - Nayak, Dali

AU - Richards, Mark

AU - Hillier, Jon

AU - Flynn, Helen

AU - Wattenbach, Martin

AU - Aitkenhead, Matt

AU - Yeluripati, Jagadeesh

AU - Farmer, Jennifer Ann

AU - Milne, Ronnie

AU - Thomson, Amanda

AU - Evans, Chris

AU - Whitmore, Andy

AU - Falloon, Pete

AU - Smith, Pete

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - In order to predict the response of carbon (C)-rich soils to external change, models are needed that accurately reflect the conditions of these soils. Here we present an example application of the new Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils - Sequestration and Emissions (ECOSSE) model to estimate net change in soil C in response to changes in land use in Scotland. The ECOSSE estimate of annual change in soil C stocks for Scotland between 2000 and 2009 is -810 +/- 89 kt yr(-1), equivalent to 0.037 +/- 0.004% yr(-1). Increasing the area of land-use change from arable to grass has the greatest potential to sequester soil C, and reducing the area of change from grass to arable has the greatest potential to reduce losses of soil C. Across Scotland, simulated changes in soil C from C-rich soils (C content >6%) between 1950 and 2009 is -63 Mt, compared with -35 Mt from non-C-rich mineral soils; losses from C-rich soils between 2000 and 2009 make up 64% of the total soil C losses. One mitigation option that could be used in upland soils to achieve zero net loss of C from Scottish soils is to stop conversion of semi-natural land to grassland and increase conversion of grassland to semi-natural land by 125% relative to the present rate. Mitigation options involving forestry are not included here because the data available to calculate losses of soil C do not account for losses of soil C on drainage of semi-natural land.

AB - In order to predict the response of carbon (C)-rich soils to external change, models are needed that accurately reflect the conditions of these soils. Here we present an example application of the new Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils - Sequestration and Emissions (ECOSSE) model to estimate net change in soil C in response to changes in land use in Scotland. The ECOSSE estimate of annual change in soil C stocks for Scotland between 2000 and 2009 is -810 +/- 89 kt yr(-1), equivalent to 0.037 +/- 0.004% yr(-1). Increasing the area of land-use change from arable to grass has the greatest potential to sequester soil C, and reducing the area of change from grass to arable has the greatest potential to reduce losses of soil C. Across Scotland, simulated changes in soil C from C-rich soils (C content >6%) between 1950 and 2009 is -63 Mt, compared with -35 Mt from non-C-rich mineral soils; losses from C-rich soils between 2000 and 2009 make up 64% of the total soil C losses. One mitigation option that could be used in upland soils to achieve zero net loss of C from Scottish soils is to stop conversion of semi-natural land to grassland and increase conversion of grassland to semi-natural land by 125% relative to the present rate. Mitigation options involving forestry are not included here because the data available to calculate losses of soil C do not account for losses of soil C on drainage of semi-natural land.

KW - organic soils

KW - dynamics simulation modelling

KW - changes in soil C stocks

KW - land-use change

KW - climate change

KW - water-table

KW - peatland

KW - dioxide

KW - climate

KW - methane

KW - fluxes

KW - simulation

KW - emissions

KW - Scotland

KW - England

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DO - 10.3354/cr00902

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VL - 45

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EP - 205

JO - Climate Research

JF - Climate Research

SN - 0936-577X

IS - 1

ER -