Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate

Mohamed Abdalla, Mark Richards, Mark Pogson, Jo U Smith, Peter Smith

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Abstract

The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N2O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO2e ha−1 y−1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO2e y−1. Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2357-2368
Number of pages12
JournalRegional Environmental Change
Volume16
Issue number8
Early online dateApr 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2016

Fingerprint

greenhouse gas
fertilizer
nitrogen
climate
soil
net primary production
climate change
effect
carbon flux
fertilizer application
nitrous oxide
farming system
land management
grassland
organic carbon
grass
land use
atmosphere
simulation

Keywords

  • ECOSSE
  • soil greenhouse gas balance
  • nitrogen fertilizer
  • net primary productivity
  • climate change
  • Wales

Cite this

@article{471083653825422cbfe09dd188021146,
title = "Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate",
abstract = "The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N2O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO2e ha−1 y−1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO2e y−1. Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 {\%} could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 {\%}, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.",
keywords = "ECOSSE , soil greenhouse gas balance, nitrogen fertilizer, net primary productivity, climate change, Wales",
author = "Mohamed Abdalla and Mark Richards and Mark Pogson and Smith, {Jo U} and Peter Smith",
note = "This work was supported by a Grant from the Welsh Government (Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Project—GMEP).",
year = "2016",
month = "12",
doi = "10.1007/s10113-016-0958-7",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
pages = "2357--2368",
journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
issn = "1436-3798",
publisher = "Springer Verlag",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate

AU - Abdalla, Mohamed

AU - Richards, Mark

AU - Pogson, Mark

AU - Smith, Jo U

AU - Smith, Peter

N1 - This work was supported by a Grant from the Welsh Government (Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Project—GMEP).

PY - 2016/12

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N2 - The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N2O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO2e ha−1 y−1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO2e y−1. Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.

AB - The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N2O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO2e ha−1 y−1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO2e y−1. Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.

KW - ECOSSE

KW - soil greenhouse gas balance

KW - nitrogen fertilizer

KW - net primary productivity

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JO - Regional Environmental Change

JF - Regional Environmental Change

SN - 1436-3798

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ER -