Estimation and prediction of avoidable health care costs of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes through adequate dairy food consumption

A systematic review and micro simulation modeling study

Mehdi Javanbakht, Ahmad Reza Jamshidi, Hamid Reza Baradaran, Zahra Mohammadi, Atefeh Mashayekhi, Farhad Shokraneh, Mohsen Rezai Hamami, Raziyeh Yazdani Bakhsh, Hossien Shabaninejad, Sajad Delavari, Arash Tehrani

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

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Abstract

Background: Recent evidence from prospective cohort studies show a relationship between consumption of dairy foods and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This association highlights the importance of dairy foods consumption in prevention of these diseases and also reduction of associated healthcare costs. The aim of this study was to estimate avoidable healthcare costs of CVD and T2D through adequate dairy foods consumption in Iran. Methods: This was a multistage modelling study. We conducted a systematic literature review in PubMed and EMBASE to identify any association between incidence of CVD and T2DM and dairy foods intake, and also associated relative risks. We obtained age- and sex-specific dairy foods consumption level and healthcare expenditures from national surveys and studies. Patient level simulation Markov models were constructed to predict the disease incidence, patient population size and associated healthcare costs for current and optimal dairy foods consumption at different time horizons (1, 5, 10 and 20 years). All parameters including costs and transition probabilities were defined as statistical distributions in the models, and all analyses were conducted by accounting for first and second order uncertainty. Results: The systematic review results indicated that dairy foods consumption was inversely associated with incidence of T2DM, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. We estimated that the introduction of a diet containing 3 servings of dairy foods per day may produce a $0.43 saving in annual per capita healthcare costs in Iran in the first year due to saving in cost of CVD and T2DM treatment. The estimated savings in per capita healthcare costs were $8.42, $39.97 and $190.25 in 5, 10 and 20-years’ time, respectively. Corresponding total aggregated avoidable costs for the entire Iranian population within the study time horizons were $33.83, $661.31, $3,138.21 and $14,934.63 million, respectively. Conclusion: Our analysis demonstrated that increasing dairy foods consumption to recommended levels would be associated with reductions in healthcare costs. Further randomized trial studies are required to investigate the effect of dairy foods intake on cost of CVD and T2DM in the population.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)213-222
Number of pages10
JournalArchives of Iranian Medicine
Volume21
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2018

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Cost of Illness
Health Care Costs
Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
Cardiovascular Diseases
Food
Iran
Incidence
Eating
Patient Simulation
Statistical Distributions
Costs and Cost Analysis
Health Expenditures
Population Density
PubMed
Population
Uncertainty
Coronary Disease
Cohort Studies
Stroke
Prospective Studies

Keywords

  • Avoidable cost
  • Cardiovascular diseases
  • Dairy foods
  • Diabetes
  • Iran
  • Markov model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Estimation and prediction of avoidable health care costs of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes through adequate dairy food consumption : A systematic review and micro simulation modeling study. / Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jamshidi, Ahmad Reza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Mohammadi, Zahra; Mashayekhi, Atefeh; Shokraneh, Farhad; Hamami, Mohsen Rezai; Bakhsh, Raziyeh Yazdani; Shabaninejad, Hossien; Delavari, Sajad; Tehrani, Arash.

In: Archives of Iranian Medicine, Vol. 21, No. 5, 01.05.2018, p. 213-222.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

Javanbakht, M, Jamshidi, AR, Baradaran, HR, Mohammadi, Z, Mashayekhi, A, Shokraneh, F, Hamami, MR, Bakhsh, RY, Shabaninejad, H, Delavari, S & Tehrani, A 2018, 'Estimation and prediction of avoidable health care costs of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes through adequate dairy food consumption: A systematic review and micro simulation modeling study', Archives of Iranian Medicine, vol. 21, no. 5, pp. 213-222.
Javanbakht, Mehdi ; Jamshidi, Ahmad Reza ; Baradaran, Hamid Reza ; Mohammadi, Zahra ; Mashayekhi, Atefeh ; Shokraneh, Farhad ; Hamami, Mohsen Rezai ; Bakhsh, Raziyeh Yazdani ; Shabaninejad, Hossien ; Delavari, Sajad ; Tehrani, Arash. / Estimation and prediction of avoidable health care costs of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes through adequate dairy food consumption : A systematic review and micro simulation modeling study. In: Archives of Iranian Medicine. 2018 ; Vol. 21, No. 5. pp. 213-222.
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abstract = "Background: Recent evidence from prospective cohort studies show a relationship between consumption of dairy foods and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This association highlights the importance of dairy foods consumption in prevention of these diseases and also reduction of associated healthcare costs. The aim of this study was to estimate avoidable healthcare costs of CVD and T2D through adequate dairy foods consumption in Iran. Methods: This was a multistage modelling study. We conducted a systematic literature review in PubMed and EMBASE to identify any association between incidence of CVD and T2DM and dairy foods intake, and also associated relative risks. We obtained age- and sex-specific dairy foods consumption level and healthcare expenditures from national surveys and studies. Patient level simulation Markov models were constructed to predict the disease incidence, patient population size and associated healthcare costs for current and optimal dairy foods consumption at different time horizons (1, 5, 10 and 20 years). All parameters including costs and transition probabilities were defined as statistical distributions in the models, and all analyses were conducted by accounting for first and second order uncertainty. Results: The systematic review results indicated that dairy foods consumption was inversely associated with incidence of T2DM, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. We estimated that the introduction of a diet containing 3 servings of dairy foods per day may produce a $0.43 saving in annual per capita healthcare costs in Iran in the first year due to saving in cost of CVD and T2DM treatment. The estimated savings in per capita healthcare costs were $8.42, $39.97 and $190.25 in 5, 10 and 20-years’ time, respectively. Corresponding total aggregated avoidable costs for the entire Iranian population within the study time horizons were $33.83, $661.31, $3,138.21 and $14,934.63 million, respectively. Conclusion: Our analysis demonstrated that increasing dairy foods consumption to recommended levels would be associated with reductions in healthcare costs. Further randomized trial studies are required to investigate the effect of dairy foods intake on cost of CVD and T2DM in the population.",
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author = "Mehdi Javanbakht and Jamshidi, {Ahmad Reza} and Baradaran, {Hamid Reza} and Zahra Mohammadi and Atefeh Mashayekhi and Farhad Shokraneh and Hamami, {Mohsen Rezai} and Bakhsh, {Raziyeh Yazdani} and Hossien Shabaninejad and Sajad Delavari and Arash Tehrani",
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T2 - A systematic review and micro simulation modeling study

AU - Javanbakht, Mehdi

AU - Jamshidi, Ahmad Reza

AU - Baradaran, Hamid Reza

AU - Mohammadi, Zahra

AU - Mashayekhi, Atefeh

AU - Shokraneh, Farhad

AU - Hamami, Mohsen Rezai

AU - Bakhsh, Raziyeh Yazdani

AU - Shabaninejad, Hossien

AU - Delavari, Sajad

AU - Tehrani, Arash

N1 - This research was supported by a grant from Rheumatology Research Center. No information used in preparation of this manuscript was owned by the sponsor.

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N2 - Background: Recent evidence from prospective cohort studies show a relationship between consumption of dairy foods and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This association highlights the importance of dairy foods consumption in prevention of these diseases and also reduction of associated healthcare costs. The aim of this study was to estimate avoidable healthcare costs of CVD and T2D through adequate dairy foods consumption in Iran. Methods: This was a multistage modelling study. We conducted a systematic literature review in PubMed and EMBASE to identify any association between incidence of CVD and T2DM and dairy foods intake, and also associated relative risks. We obtained age- and sex-specific dairy foods consumption level and healthcare expenditures from national surveys and studies. Patient level simulation Markov models were constructed to predict the disease incidence, patient population size and associated healthcare costs for current and optimal dairy foods consumption at different time horizons (1, 5, 10 and 20 years). All parameters including costs and transition probabilities were defined as statistical distributions in the models, and all analyses were conducted by accounting for first and second order uncertainty. Results: The systematic review results indicated that dairy foods consumption was inversely associated with incidence of T2DM, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. We estimated that the introduction of a diet containing 3 servings of dairy foods per day may produce a $0.43 saving in annual per capita healthcare costs in Iran in the first year due to saving in cost of CVD and T2DM treatment. The estimated savings in per capita healthcare costs were $8.42, $39.97 and $190.25 in 5, 10 and 20-years’ time, respectively. Corresponding total aggregated avoidable costs for the entire Iranian population within the study time horizons were $33.83, $661.31, $3,138.21 and $14,934.63 million, respectively. Conclusion: Our analysis demonstrated that increasing dairy foods consumption to recommended levels would be associated with reductions in healthcare costs. Further randomized trial studies are required to investigate the effect of dairy foods intake on cost of CVD and T2DM in the population.

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