TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimation and prediction of avoidable health care costs of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes through adequate dairy food consumption
T2 - A systematic review and micro simulation modeling study
AU - Javanbakht, Mehdi
AU - Jamshidi, Ahmad Reza
AU - Baradaran, Hamid Reza
AU - Mohammadi, Zahra
AU - Mashayekhi, Atefeh
AU - Shokraneh, Farhad
AU - Hamami, Mohsen Rezai
AU - Bakhsh, Raziyeh Yazdani
AU - Shabaninejad, Hossien
AU - Delavari, Sajad
AU - Tehrani, Arash
N1 - This research was supported by a grant from Rheumatology Research Center. No information used in preparation of this manuscript was owned by the sponsor.
PY - 2018/5/1
Y1 - 2018/5/1
N2 - Background: Recent evidence from prospective cohort studies show a relationship between consumption of dairy foods and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This association highlights the importance of dairy foods consumption in prevention of these diseases and also reduction of associated healthcare costs. The aim of this study was to estimate avoidable healthcare costs of CVD and T2D through adequate dairy foods consumption in Iran. Methods: This was a multistage modelling study. We conducted a systematic literature review in PubMed and EMBASE to identify any association between incidence of CVD and T2DM and dairy foods intake, and also associated relative risks. We obtained age- and sex-specific dairy foods consumption level and healthcare expenditures from national surveys and studies. Patient level simulation Markov models were constructed to predict the disease incidence, patient population size and associated healthcare costs for current and optimal dairy foods consumption at different time horizons (1, 5, 10 and 20 years). All parameters including costs and transition probabilities were defined as statistical distributions in the models, and all analyses were conducted by accounting for first and second order uncertainty. Results: The systematic review results indicated that dairy foods consumption was inversely associated with incidence of T2DM, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. We estimated that the introduction of a diet containing 3 servings of dairy foods per day may produce a $0.43 saving in annual per capita healthcare costs in Iran in the first year due to saving in cost of CVD and T2DM treatment. The estimated savings in per capita healthcare costs were $8.42, $39.97 and $190.25 in 5, 10 and 20-years’ time, respectively. Corresponding total aggregated avoidable costs for the entire Iranian population within the study time horizons were $33.83, $661.31, $3,138.21 and $14,934.63 million, respectively. Conclusion: Our analysis demonstrated that increasing dairy foods consumption to recommended levels would be associated with reductions in healthcare costs. Further randomized trial studies are required to investigate the effect of dairy foods intake on cost of CVD and T2DM in the population.
AB - Background: Recent evidence from prospective cohort studies show a relationship between consumption of dairy foods and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This association highlights the importance of dairy foods consumption in prevention of these diseases and also reduction of associated healthcare costs. The aim of this study was to estimate avoidable healthcare costs of CVD and T2D through adequate dairy foods consumption in Iran. Methods: This was a multistage modelling study. We conducted a systematic literature review in PubMed and EMBASE to identify any association between incidence of CVD and T2DM and dairy foods intake, and also associated relative risks. We obtained age- and sex-specific dairy foods consumption level and healthcare expenditures from national surveys and studies. Patient level simulation Markov models were constructed to predict the disease incidence, patient population size and associated healthcare costs for current and optimal dairy foods consumption at different time horizons (1, 5, 10 and 20 years). All parameters including costs and transition probabilities were defined as statistical distributions in the models, and all analyses were conducted by accounting for first and second order uncertainty. Results: The systematic review results indicated that dairy foods consumption was inversely associated with incidence of T2DM, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. We estimated that the introduction of a diet containing 3 servings of dairy foods per day may produce a $0.43 saving in annual per capita healthcare costs in Iran in the first year due to saving in cost of CVD and T2DM treatment. The estimated savings in per capita healthcare costs were $8.42, $39.97 and $190.25 in 5, 10 and 20-years’ time, respectively. Corresponding total aggregated avoidable costs for the entire Iranian population within the study time horizons were $33.83, $661.31, $3,138.21 and $14,934.63 million, respectively. Conclusion: Our analysis demonstrated that increasing dairy foods consumption to recommended levels would be associated with reductions in healthcare costs. Further randomized trial studies are required to investigate the effect of dairy foods intake on cost of CVD and T2DM in the population.
KW - Avoidable cost
KW - Cardiovascular diseases
KW - Dairy foods
KW - Diabetes
KW - Iran
KW - Markov model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85054081819&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:85054081819
SN - 1029-2977
VL - 21
SP - 213
EP - 222
JO - Archives of Iranian Medicine
JF - Archives of Iranian Medicine
IS - 5
ER -