External validation of a prediction model for successful external cephalic version

Marcella De Hundt*, Floortje Vlemmix, Marjolein Kok, Jan W. Van Der Steeg, Joke M. Bais, Ben W. Mol, Joris A. Van Der Post

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We sought external validation of a prediction model for the probability of a successful external cephalic version (ECV). We evaluated the performance of the prediction model with calibration and discrimination. For clinical practice, we developed a score chart to calculate the probability of a successful ECV. We studied 320 women undergoing ECV, of which 117 (37%) were successful. The model underestimated the success rate by 4 to 14%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was moderate (0.66; 95% confidence interval: 0.60 to 0.72), but the model was able to make good distinction between women with a higher predicted probability of a successful ECV (more than 50%) compared with women with a lower predicted probability of a successful ECV (less than 20%). Our model to predict the outcome of ECV holds in external validation. It can be used to support patient counseling and decision making for ECV in singleton term breech presentations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)231-236
Number of pages6
JournalAmerican journal of perinatology
Volume29
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012

Keywords

  • breech presentation
  • external cephalic version
  • external validation
  • prediction model

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    De Hundt, M., Vlemmix, F., Kok, M., Van Der Steeg, J. W., Bais, J. M., Mol, B. W., & Van Der Post, J. A. (2012). External validation of a prediction model for successful external cephalic version. American journal of perinatology, 29(3), 231-236. https://doi.org/10.1055/s-0031-1285098