Forecasting Activity Levels in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf:  The Role of Perceptions

Sola Abass Kasim; Alexander George Kemp

doi:10.1016/S0140-9883(03)00045-8

Forecasting Activity Levels in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf: The Role of Perceptions

Sola Abass Kasim, Alexander George Kemp

Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The explicit treatment of the role of perceptions in modelling forecasts is uncommon. With respect to future activity levels in the UK Continental Shelf, using the flexibility of add factors in econometric forecasts, this article demonstrates that, in addition to price variations, forecasts are sensitive to perceptions about future resource discovery and recovery rates. A medium-sized multivariate system reflecting the feedback structure of the petroleum supply process was formulated, estimated, and used to forecast activity levels. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	713-739
Number of pages	26
Journal	Energy Economics
Volume	25
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(03)00045-8
Publication status	Published - Nov 2003

Keywords

empirical econometric model
perceptions of resource discovery and recovery rates
two-way ANOVA price-perceptions sensitivity tests
EXPLORATION
OIL

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10.1016/S0140-9883(03)00045-8

North Sea Oil and Gas Taxation and Activity Levels
Alexander Kemp (Coordinator), Sola Kasim (Coordinator) & Linda Stephen (Coordinator)
Impact

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title = "Forecasting Activity Levels in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf: The Role of Perceptions",

abstract = "The explicit treatment of the role of perceptions in modelling forecasts is uncommon. With respect to future activity levels in the UK Continental Shelf, using the flexibility of add factors in econometric forecasts, this article demonstrates that, in addition to price variations, forecasts are sensitive to perceptions about future resource discovery and recovery rates. A medium-sized multivariate system reflecting the feedback structure of the petroleum supply process was formulated, estimated, and used to forecast activity levels. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.",

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AB - The explicit treatment of the role of perceptions in modelling forecasts is uncommon. With respect to future activity levels in the UK Continental Shelf, using the flexibility of add factors in econometric forecasts, this article demonstrates that, in addition to price variations, forecasts are sensitive to perceptions about future resource discovery and recovery rates. A medium-sized multivariate system reflecting the feedback structure of the petroleum supply process was formulated, estimated, and used to forecast activity levels. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

KW - empirical econometric model

KW - perceptions of resource discovery and recovery rates

KW - two-way ANOVA price-perceptions sensitivity tests

KW - EXPLORATION

KW - OIL

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-9883(03)00045-8

DO - 10.1016/S0140-9883(03)00045-8

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SP - 713

EP - 739

JO - Energy Economics

JF - Energy Economics

IS - 6

ER -

Forecasting Activity Levels in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf: The Role of Perceptions

Abstract

Keywords

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North Sea Oil and Gas Taxation and Activity Levels

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