Forecasting Activity Levels in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf: The Role of Perceptions

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Abstract

The explicit treatment of the role of perceptions in modelling forecasts is uncommon. With respect to future activity levels in the UK Continental Shelf, using the flexibility of add factors in econometric forecasts, this article demonstrates that, in addition to price variations, forecasts are sensitive to perceptions about future resource discovery and recovery rates. A medium-sized multivariate system reflecting the feedback structure of the petroleum supply process was formulated, estimated, and used to forecast activity levels. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)713-739
Number of pages26
JournalEnergy Economics
Volume25
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2003

Keywords

  • empirical econometric model
  • perceptions of resource discovery and recovery rates
  • two-way ANOVA price-perceptions sensitivity tests
  • EXPLORATION
  • OIL

Cite this

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title = "Forecasting Activity Levels in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf: The Role of Perceptions",
abstract = "The explicit treatment of the role of perceptions in modelling forecasts is uncommon. With respect to future activity levels in the UK Continental Shelf, using the flexibility of add factors in econometric forecasts, this article demonstrates that, in addition to price variations, forecasts are sensitive to perceptions about future resource discovery and recovery rates. A medium-sized multivariate system reflecting the feedback structure of the petroleum supply process was formulated, estimated, and used to forecast activity levels. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.",
keywords = "empirical econometric model, perceptions of resource discovery and recovery rates, two-way ANOVA price-perceptions sensitivity tests, EXPLORATION, OIL",
author = "Kasim, {Sola Abass} and Kemp, {Alexander George}",
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AB - The explicit treatment of the role of perceptions in modelling forecasts is uncommon. With respect to future activity levels in the UK Continental Shelf, using the flexibility of add factors in econometric forecasts, this article demonstrates that, in addition to price variations, forecasts are sensitive to perceptions about future resource discovery and recovery rates. A medium-sized multivariate system reflecting the feedback structure of the petroleum supply process was formulated, estimated, and used to forecast activity levels. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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KW - two-way ANOVA price-perceptions sensitivity tests

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