Forecasting the sign of U.S. oil and gas industry stock index excess returns employing macroeconomic variables

Jingzhen Liu (Corresponding Author), Alexander Kemp (Corresponding Author)

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

In this study we propose a method of selecting the macroeconomic variables for forecasting the excess return signs of the U.S. oil and gas industry stock index by combining the Forward Sequential Variable Selection Algorithm and information criteria. We select predictors from a large monthly macroeconomic variable dataset designed by McCracken and Ng (2015). The method can adapt to the updated macroeconomic information and the possible time-varying relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the stock return signs. We also propose a method which can change the threshold value of the probit model automatically for considering the potential time-varying risk aversion level of the market participants. Further, we investigate the investment performance of an active trading strategy based on our forecasting model and compare it with a passive buy-and-hold trading strategy for different time periods.

Our study is important for both oil and gas industry investors and U.S. energy policy makers. The method that we used in this study offers a solution to the issue of selecting useful information from large datasets and absorbing updated market information.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)672-686
Number of pages15
JournalEnergy Economics
Volume81
Early online date2 May 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2019

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Gas industry
Energy policy
Oils
Stock index
Oil and gas industry
Macroeconomic variables
Excess returns
Trading strategies

Keywords

  • Excess stock return
  • U.S. Oil and gas industry
  • Probit model
  • Market timing
  • Big data
  • US Oil and gas industry
  • MARKET
  • PERFORMANCE
  • INFORMATION
  • TRADING RULE PROFITS
  • RISK EXPOSURE
  • CLASSIFICATION
  • SHARPE
  • MODEL SELECTION
  • CANADIAN OIL
  • PRICE RISK

Cite this

Forecasting the sign of U.S. oil and gas industry stock index excess returns employing macroeconomic variables. / Liu, Jingzhen (Corresponding Author); Kemp, Alexander (Corresponding Author).

In: Energy Economics, Vol. 81, 01.06.2019, p. 672-686.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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