Abstract
This paper develops an empirical, multi-layered and spatially-explicit agent-based model that explores sustainable pathways for Aberdeen city and surrounding area to transition from an oil-based economy to green growth. The model takes an integrated, complex systems approach to urban systems and incorporates the interconnectedness between people, households, businesses, industries and neighbourhoods. We find that the oil price collapse could potentially lead to enduring regional decline and recession. With green growth, however, the crisis could be used as an opportunity to restructure the regional economy, reshape its neighbourhoods, and redefine its identity in the global economy. We find that the type of the green growth and the location of the new businesses will have profound ramifications for development outcomes, not only by directly creating businesses and employment opportunities in strategic areas, but also by redirecting households and service businesses to these areas. New residential and business centres emerge as a result of this process. Finally, we argue that industries, businesses and the labour market are essential components of a deeply integrated urban system. To understand urban transition, models should consider both household and industrial aspects.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 119-140 |
| Number of pages | 22 |
| Journal | Environmental Modelling and Software |
| Volume | 107 |
| Early online date | 9 Jun 2018 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 30 Sep 2018 |
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Keywords
- Migration
- Oil crises
- Recession
- Spatial agent-based model
- Sustainability
- Urban transition
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Software
- Environmental Engineering
- Ecological Modelling
Cite this
From oil wealth to green growth - An empirical agent-based model of recession, migration and sustainable urban transition. / Ge, Jiaqi (Corresponding Author); Polhill, J. Gareth; Craig, Tony; Liu, Nan.
In: Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol. 107, 30.09.2018, p. 119-140.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - From oil wealth to green growth - An empirical agent-based model of recession, migration and sustainable urban transition
AU - Ge, Jiaqi
AU - Polhill, J. Gareth
AU - Craig, Tony
AU - Liu, Nan
N1 - This work was funded by the European Commission's Framework Programme 7, under theme SSH.2013.2.1-1 (obstacles and prospects for sustainable lifestyles and green economy in Europe), grant agreement number 613420 (‘GLAMURS’: Green Lifestyles, Alternative Models and Upscaling Regional Sustainability), and the Scottish Government's Strategic Research Programme 2011–2016, Work Package 4.2 (low carbon rural economies).
PY - 2018/9/30
Y1 - 2018/9/30
N2 - This paper develops an empirical, multi-layered and spatially-explicit agent-based model that explores sustainable pathways for Aberdeen city and surrounding area to transition from an oil-based economy to green growth. The model takes an integrated, complex systems approach to urban systems and incorporates the interconnectedness between people, households, businesses, industries and neighbourhoods. We find that the oil price collapse could potentially lead to enduring regional decline and recession. With green growth, however, the crisis could be used as an opportunity to restructure the regional economy, reshape its neighbourhoods, and redefine its identity in the global economy. We find that the type of the green growth and the location of the new businesses will have profound ramifications for development outcomes, not only by directly creating businesses and employment opportunities in strategic areas, but also by redirecting households and service businesses to these areas. New residential and business centres emerge as a result of this process. Finally, we argue that industries, businesses and the labour market are essential components of a deeply integrated urban system. To understand urban transition, models should consider both household and industrial aspects.
AB - This paper develops an empirical, multi-layered and spatially-explicit agent-based model that explores sustainable pathways for Aberdeen city and surrounding area to transition from an oil-based economy to green growth. The model takes an integrated, complex systems approach to urban systems and incorporates the interconnectedness between people, households, businesses, industries and neighbourhoods. We find that the oil price collapse could potentially lead to enduring regional decline and recession. With green growth, however, the crisis could be used as an opportunity to restructure the regional economy, reshape its neighbourhoods, and redefine its identity in the global economy. We find that the type of the green growth and the location of the new businesses will have profound ramifications for development outcomes, not only by directly creating businesses and employment opportunities in strategic areas, but also by redirecting households and service businesses to these areas. New residential and business centres emerge as a result of this process. Finally, we argue that industries, businesses and the labour market are essential components of a deeply integrated urban system. To understand urban transition, models should consider both household and industrial aspects.
KW - Migration
KW - Oil crises
KW - Recession
KW - Spatial agent-based model
KW - Sustainability
KW - Urban transition
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048212530&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.017
DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.017
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85048212530
VL - 107
SP - 119
EP - 140
JO - Environmental Modelling and Software
JF - Environmental Modelling and Software
SN - 1364-8152
ER -