Getting to Yes: What Can Scottish Independence Campaigners Learn From the Devolution Referendums of 1979 and 1997?

This paper will examine the prospects for a Yes vote at a future Scottish independence referendum. The first part of the paper will look at the developing debate on the referendum issue through consideration of the different referendum consultation proposals of the Scottish and UK governments in 2010 and 2012. From there,the paper will focus on the likely campaign dynamics of the 2014 referendum. To do so, it will look back at some of the issues from 1979 and 1997. It will then explore the different campaign dynamics through two scenarios: a simple Yes/No referendum on independence and a multi-option referendum that involves devo-max or some other advanced form of devolution.