Human campybacteriosis in Scotland: seasonality, regional trends and bursts of infection

Fourier time-series models were constructed to study regional and national seasonality of human campylobacteriosis in Scotland between 1997 and 2001. Strong seasonality was demonstrated with an annual peak of reported cases in late June to early July. The prominence of this peak varied between regions, which was exemplified for the two major population centres: Lothian, with mixed urban/rural population, had a more prominent peak than Greater Glasgow, which has a predominantly urban population. No significant trend of annual cases of campylobacteriosis was found nationally and Fourier models successfully predicted the seasonal pattern of national and regional cases in 2002. During the period studied, the Fourier model identified >20 bursts of infection (potential outbreaks). Multi-regional bursts were also identified in the summers of 1998 and 2000 - the latter comprising the vast majority of the regions in Scotland, which could suggest a national outbreak.