Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on emergency asthma admissions and deaths: national interrupted time series analyses for Scotland and Wales

Gwyneth A Davies, Mohammad A Alsallakh, Shanya Sivakumaran, Eleftheria Vasileiou, Ronan A Lyons, Chris Robertson, Aziz Sheikh, EAVE II Collaborators

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic's impact on people with asthma is poorly understood. We hypothesised that lockdown restrictions were associated with reductions in severe asthma exacerbations requiring emergency asthma admissions and/or leading to death.

METHODS: Using data from Public Health Scotland and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales, we compared weekly counts of emergency admissions and deaths due to asthma over the first 18 weeks in 2020 with the national averages over 2015-2019. We modelled the impact of instigating lockdown on these outcomes using interrupted time-series analysis. Using fixed-effect meta-analysis, we derived pooled estimates of the overall changes in trends across the two nations. We also investigated trends in asthma-related primary care prescribing and emergency department (ED) attendances in Wales.

RESULTS: Lockdown was associated with a 36% pooled reduction in emergency admissions for asthma (incidence rate ratio, IRR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.83, p value 0.001) across both countries. There was no significant change in asthma deaths (pooled IRR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.17 to 1.94, p value 0.37). ED asthma attendances in Wales declined during lockdown (IRR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.73 to 0.99, p value 0.03). A large spike of 121% more inhaled corticosteroids and 133% more oral corticosteroid prescriptions was seen in Wales in the week before lockdown.

CONCLUSIONS: National lockdowns were associated with substantial reductions in severe asthma exacerbations leading to hospital admission across both Scotland and Wales, with no corresponding increase in asthma deaths.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)867-873
Number of pages7
JournalThorax
Volume76
Issue number9
Early online date29 Mar 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2021

Keywords

  • Administration, Inhalation
  • Adrenal Cortex Hormones/therapeutic use
  • Asthma/drug therapy
  • COVID-19/prevention & control
  • Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Interrupted Time Series Analysis
  • Patient Admission/statistics & numerical data
  • Primary Health Care/statistics & numerical data
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Scotland/epidemiology
  • Wales/epidemiology

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