Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation

a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

M. van Oijen (Corresponding Author), J. Balkovi, C. Beer, D.R. Cameron, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, T. Kato, Matthias Kuhnert, R. Martin, R. Mynemi, A. Ramming, S. Rolinski, J.-F. Soussana, K. Thonicke, M. van der Velde, L. Xu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

15 Citations (Scopus)
4 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosystems. The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach, risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is calculated from the response to drought simulated by process-based vegetation models.

We use six different models: three for generic vegetation (JSBACH, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for specific ecosystems (Scots pine forests: BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B scenario. The risk analysis is carried out for ~ 18 000 grid cells of 0.25 × 0.25° across Europe. For each grid cell, drought vulnerability and risk are quantified for five seasonal variables: net primary and ecosystem productivity (NPP, NEP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil water content and evapotranspiration.

In this analysis, climate change leads to increased drought risks for net primary productivity in the Mediterranean area: five of the models estimate that risk will exceed 15%. The risks increase mainly because of greater drought probability; ecosystem vulnerability will increase to a lesser extent. Because NPP will be affected more than Rh, future carbon sequestration (NEP) will also be at risk predominantly in southern Europe, with risks exceeding 0.25 g C m−2 d−1 according to most models, amounting to reductions in carbon sequestration of 20 to 80%.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)6357-6375
Number of pages19
JournalBiogeosciences
Volume11
Issue number22
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 26 Nov 2014

Fingerprint

probabilistic risk assessment
carbon cycle
drought
vegetation
ecosystems
vulnerability
ecosystem
risk analysis
carbon sequestration
climate change
hazard
risk estimate
Southern European region
climate models
productivity
cell respiration
Pinus sylvestris
carbon flux
coniferous forests
evapotranspiration

Cite this

van Oijen, M., Balkovi, J., Beer, C., Cameron, D. R., Ciais, P., Cramer, W., ... Xu, L. (2014). Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models. Biogeosciences, 11(22), 6357-6375. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014

Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation : a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models. / van Oijen, M. (Corresponding Author); Balkovi, J.; Beer, C.; Cameron, D.R.; Ciais, P.; Cramer, W.; Kato, T.; Kuhnert, Matthias; Martin, R.; Mynemi, R.; Ramming, A.; Rolinski, S.; Soussana, J.-F.; Thonicke, K.; van der Velde, M.; Xu, L.

In: Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, No. 22, 26.11.2014, p. 6357-6375.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

van Oijen, M, Balkovi, J, Beer, C, Cameron, DR, Ciais, P, Cramer, W, Kato, T, Kuhnert, M, Martin, R, Mynemi, R, Ramming, A, Rolinski, S, Soussana, J-F, Thonicke, K, van der Velde, M & Xu, L 2014, 'Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models', Biogeosciences, vol. 11, no. 22, pp. 6357-6375. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014
van Oijen, M. ; Balkovi, J. ; Beer, C. ; Cameron, D.R. ; Ciais, P. ; Cramer, W. ; Kato, T. ; Kuhnert, Matthias ; Martin, R. ; Mynemi, R. ; Ramming, A. ; Rolinski, S. ; Soussana, J.-F. ; Thonicke, K. ; van der Velde, M. ; Xu, L. / Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation : a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models. In: Biogeosciences. 2014 ; Vol. 11, No. 22. pp. 6357-6375.
@article{488e73884f3e4010bc075026668e9f5f,
title = "Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models",
abstract = "We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosystems. The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach, risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is calculated from the response to drought simulated by process-based vegetation models.We use six different models: three for generic vegetation (JSBACH, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for specific ecosystems (Scots pine forests: BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B scenario. The risk analysis is carried out for ~ 18 000 grid cells of 0.25 × 0.25° across Europe. For each grid cell, drought vulnerability and risk are quantified for five seasonal variables: net primary and ecosystem productivity (NPP, NEP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil water content and evapotranspiration.In this analysis, climate change leads to increased drought risks for net primary productivity in the Mediterranean area: five of the models estimate that risk will exceed 15{\%}. The risks increase mainly because of greater drought probability; ecosystem vulnerability will increase to a lesser extent. Because NPP will be affected more than Rh, future carbon sequestration (NEP) will also be at risk predominantly in southern Europe, with risks exceeding 0.25 g C m−2 d−1 according to most models, amounting to reductions in carbon sequestration of 20 to 80{\%}.",
author = "{van Oijen}, M. and J. Balkovi and C. Beer and D.R. Cameron and P. Ciais and W. Cramer and T. Kato and Matthias Kuhnert and R. Martin and R. Mynemi and A. Ramming and S. Rolinski and J.-F. Soussana and K. Thonicke and {van der Velde}, M. and L. Xu",
year = "2014",
month = "11",
day = "26",
doi = "10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014",
language = "English",
volume = "11",
pages = "6357--6375",
journal = "Biogeosciences",
issn = "1726-4170",
publisher = "Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH",
number = "22",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation

T2 - a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

AU - van Oijen, M.

AU - Balkovi, J.

AU - Beer, C.

AU - Cameron, D.R.

AU - Ciais, P.

AU - Cramer, W.

AU - Kato, T.

AU - Kuhnert, Matthias

AU - Martin, R.

AU - Mynemi, R.

AU - Ramming, A.

AU - Rolinski, S.

AU - Soussana, J.-F.

AU - Thonicke, K.

AU - van der Velde, M.

AU - Xu, L.

PY - 2014/11/26

Y1 - 2014/11/26

N2 - We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosystems. The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach, risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is calculated from the response to drought simulated by process-based vegetation models.We use six different models: three for generic vegetation (JSBACH, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for specific ecosystems (Scots pine forests: BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B scenario. The risk analysis is carried out for ~ 18 000 grid cells of 0.25 × 0.25° across Europe. For each grid cell, drought vulnerability and risk are quantified for five seasonal variables: net primary and ecosystem productivity (NPP, NEP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil water content and evapotranspiration.In this analysis, climate change leads to increased drought risks for net primary productivity in the Mediterranean area: five of the models estimate that risk will exceed 15%. The risks increase mainly because of greater drought probability; ecosystem vulnerability will increase to a lesser extent. Because NPP will be affected more than Rh, future carbon sequestration (NEP) will also be at risk predominantly in southern Europe, with risks exceeding 0.25 g C m−2 d−1 according to most models, amounting to reductions in carbon sequestration of 20 to 80%.

AB - We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosystems. The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach, risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is calculated from the response to drought simulated by process-based vegetation models.We use six different models: three for generic vegetation (JSBACH, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for specific ecosystems (Scots pine forests: BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B scenario. The risk analysis is carried out for ~ 18 000 grid cells of 0.25 × 0.25° across Europe. For each grid cell, drought vulnerability and risk are quantified for five seasonal variables: net primary and ecosystem productivity (NPP, NEP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil water content and evapotranspiration.In this analysis, climate change leads to increased drought risks for net primary productivity in the Mediterranean area: five of the models estimate that risk will exceed 15%. The risks increase mainly because of greater drought probability; ecosystem vulnerability will increase to a lesser extent. Because NPP will be affected more than Rh, future carbon sequestration (NEP) will also be at risk predominantly in southern Europe, with risks exceeding 0.25 g C m−2 d−1 according to most models, amounting to reductions in carbon sequestration of 20 to 80%.

U2 - 10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014

DO - 10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014

M3 - Article

VL - 11

SP - 6357

EP - 6375

JO - Biogeosciences

JF - Biogeosciences

SN - 1726-4170

IS - 22

ER -