Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

M. C. Urban, G. Bocedi, A. P. Hendry, J. B. Mihoub, G. Pe'er, A. Singer, J. R. Bridle, L. G. Crozier, L. De Meester, W. Godsoe, A. Gonzalez, J. J. Hellmann, R. D. Holt, A. Huth, K. Johst, C. B. Krug, P. W. Leadley, S. C. F. Palmer, J. H. Pantel, A. SchmitzP. A. Zollner, J. M. J. Travis

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Abstract

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.
Original languageEnglish
Article numberaad8466
Number of pages9
JournalScience
Volume353
Issue number6304
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 9 Sep 2016

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    Urban, M. C., Bocedi, G., Hendry, A. P., Mihoub, J. B., Pe'er, G., Singer, A., Bridle, J. R., Crozier, L. G., De Meester, L., Godsoe, W., Gonzalez, A., Hellmann, J. J., Holt, R. D., Huth, A., Johst, K., Krug, C. B., Leadley, P. W., Palmer, S. C. F., Pantel, J. H., ... Travis, J. M. J. (2016). Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change. Science, 353(6304), [aad8466]. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8466