Incriminating bluetongue virus vectors with climate envelope models

1. The spread of vector-borne diseases into new areas, commonly attributed to environmental change or increased trade and travel, could be exacerbated if novel vector species in newly invaded areas spread infection beyond the range of traditional vectors. 2. By analysing the differential degree of overlap between the environmental envelopes for bluetongue, a devastating livestock disease, and its traditional (Afro-Asian) and potential new (Palearctic) midge vectors, we have implicated the latter in the recent dramatic northward spread of this disease into Europe. 3. The traditional vector of bluetongue virus, the Afro-Asian midge Culicoides imicola, was found to occur in warm (annual mean 12-20°C), thermally stable locations that were dry in summer (< 400 mm precipitation). The Palearctic C. obsoletus and C. pulicaris complexes were both found to occur in cooler (down to 7°C annual mean), thermally more variable and wetter (up to 700 mm summer precipitation) locations. 4. Of 501 recorded outbreaks from the 1998-2004 bluetongue epidemic in southern Europe, 40% fall outside the climate envelope of C. imicola, but within the species' envelopes of the C. obsoletus and C. pulicaris complexes. 5. The distribution in multivariate environmental space of bluetongue virus is closer to that of the Palaearctic vectors than it is to that of C. imicola. This suggests that Palearctic vectors now play a substantial role in transmission and have facilitated the spread of bluetongue into cooler, wetter regions of Europe. 6. Synthesis and applications. The risk to Northern Europe now depends on how much of the distributions of the widespread, abundant Palearctic midge vectors (the C. obsoletus and C. pulicaris complexes) bluetongue can occupy, perhaps determined by thermal constraints on viral replication. This was highlighted by the sudden appearance in summer 2006 of bluetongue virus at latitudes of more than 50° North - approximately 6° further North than previous outbreaks in southern Europe. Future surveillance for bluetongue and for related Culicoides-borne pathogens should include studies to record and explain the distributional patterns of all potential Palearctic vector species.