Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: potential and feasibility by country

Stephanie Roe* (Corresponding Author), Charlotte Streck, Robert Beach, Jonah Busch, Melissa Chapman, Vassilis Daioglou, Andre Deppermann, Jonathan Doelman, Jeremy Emmet-Booth, Jens Engelmann, Oliver Fricko, Chad Frischman, Jason Funk, Giacomo Grassi, Bronson W. Griscom, Petr Havlík, Steef Hanssen, Florian Humpenöder, David Landholm, Guy LomaxJohannes Lehmann, Leah Mesnildrey, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Alexander Popp, Charlotte Rivard, Jonathan Sanderman, Brent Sohngen, Pete Smith, Elke Stehfest, Dominic Woolf, Deborah Lawrence

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing ‘bottom-up’ sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country-level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO2eq) landbased mitigation is 8–13.8 GtCO2eq yr-1 between 2020–2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5ºC pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies six-fold across the five regions assessed (0.75–4.8 GtCO2eq yr-1) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. While land-based mitigation potential roughly correlates with a country’s land area, many smaller countries have disproportionately high levels of mitigation potential for their size. The feasibility assessment also suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation, while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity and adequate investments are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship
Original languageEnglish
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 20 Aug 2021

Keywords

  • mitigation
  • AFOLU
  • land sector
  • feasibility
  • natural climate solutions
  • nature-based solutions
  • co-benefits
  • land management

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