Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N2O and CH4 fluxes in tropical agriculture

Meryl Richards, Ruth Metzel, Ngonidzashe Chirinda, Proyuth Ly, George Nyamadzawo, Quynh Duong Vu, Andreas De Neergaard, Myles Oelofse, Eva Wollenberg, Emma Keller, Daniella Malin, Jørgen E. Olesen, Jonathan Hillier, Todd S. Rosenstock*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

Demand for tools to rapidly assess greenhouse gas impacts from policy and technological change in the agricultural sector has catalyzed the development of ' GHG calculators'-simple accounting approaches that use a mix of emission factors and empirical models to calculate GHG emissions with minimal input data. GHG calculators, however, rely on models calibrated from measurements conducted overwhelmingly under temperate, developed country conditions. Here we show that GHG calculators may poorly estimate emissions in tropical developing countries by comparing calculator predictions against measurements from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Estimates based on GHG calculators were greater than measurements in 70% of the cases, exceeding twice the measured flux nearly half the time. For 41% of the comparisons, calculators incorrectly predicted whether emissions would increase or decrease with a change in management. These results raise concerns about applying GHG calculators to tropical farming systems and emphasize the need to broaden the scope of the underlying data.

Original languageEnglish
Article number26279
JournalScientific Reports
Volume6
Early online date20 May 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 20 May 2016

Fingerprint

greenhouse gas
agriculture
soil
technological change
farming system
developing world
prediction
Africa
policy
developed country
Asia
comparison
emission factor
accounting
demand

Keywords

  • attribution
  • climate-change mitigation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

Richards, M., Metzel, R., Chirinda, N., Ly, P., Nyamadzawo, G., Duong Vu, Q., ... Rosenstock, T. S. (2016). Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N2O and CH4 fluxes in tropical agriculture. Scientific Reports, 6, [26279]. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep26279

Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N2O and CH4 fluxes in tropical agriculture. / Richards, Meryl; Metzel, Ruth; Chirinda, Ngonidzashe; Ly, Proyuth; Nyamadzawo, George; Duong Vu, Quynh; De Neergaard, Andreas; Oelofse, Myles; Wollenberg, Eva; Keller, Emma; Malin, Daniella; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Hillier, Jonathan; Rosenstock, Todd S.

In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, 26279, 20.05.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Richards, M, Metzel, R, Chirinda, N, Ly, P, Nyamadzawo, G, Duong Vu, Q, De Neergaard, A, Oelofse, M, Wollenberg, E, Keller, E, Malin, D, Olesen, JE, Hillier, J & Rosenstock, TS 2016, 'Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N2O and CH4 fluxes in tropical agriculture', Scientific Reports, vol. 6, 26279. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep26279
Richards, Meryl ; Metzel, Ruth ; Chirinda, Ngonidzashe ; Ly, Proyuth ; Nyamadzawo, George ; Duong Vu, Quynh ; De Neergaard, Andreas ; Oelofse, Myles ; Wollenberg, Eva ; Keller, Emma ; Malin, Daniella ; Olesen, Jørgen E. ; Hillier, Jonathan ; Rosenstock, Todd S. / Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N2O and CH4 fluxes in tropical agriculture. In: Scientific Reports. 2016 ; Vol. 6.
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abstract = "Demand for tools to rapidly assess greenhouse gas impacts from policy and technological change in the agricultural sector has catalyzed the development of ' GHG calculators'-simple accounting approaches that use a mix of emission factors and empirical models to calculate GHG emissions with minimal input data. GHG calculators, however, rely on models calibrated from measurements conducted overwhelmingly under temperate, developed country conditions. Here we show that GHG calculators may poorly estimate emissions in tropical developing countries by comparing calculator predictions against measurements from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Estimates based on GHG calculators were greater than measurements in 70{\%} of the cases, exceeding twice the measured flux nearly half the time. For 41{\%} of the comparisons, calculators incorrectly predicted whether emissions would increase or decrease with a change in management. These results raise concerns about applying GHG calculators to tropical farming systems and emphasize the need to broaden the scope of the underlying data.",
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