Abstract
This study presents a new comprehensive set of long-term Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves of all major non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission sources. The work builds on existing short-term MAC curve datasets and recent literature on individual mitigation measures. The new MAC curves include current technology and costs information as well as estimates of technology development and removal of implementation barriers to capture long-term dynamics. Compared to earlier work, we find a higher projected maximum reduction potential (MRP) of nitrous oxide (N2O) and a lower MRP of methane (CH4). The combined MRP for all non-CO2 gases is similar but has been extended to also capture mitigation measures that can be realized at higher implementation costs. When applying the new MAC curves in a cost-optimal, integrated assessment model-based 2.6 W/m2 scenario, the total non-CO2 mitigation is projected to be 10.9 Mt CO2 equivalents in 2050 (i.e. 58% reduction compared to baseline emissions) and 15.6 Mt CO2equivalents in 2100 (i.e. a 71% reduction). In applying the new MAC curves, we account for inertia in thline implementation speed of mitigation measures. Although this does not strongly impact results in an optimal strategy, it means that the contribution of non-CO2 mitigation could be more limited if ambitious climate policy is delayed.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 136-149 |
Number of pages | 14 |
Journal | Environmental Science & Policy |
Volume | 99 |
Early online date | 14 Jun 2019 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Sept 2019 |
Bibliographical note
The research leading to these results has received funding from the KR foundation (#G-1503-01733) and the Climate Works Foundation (IIA/17/1303). We would like to gratefully thank them and our colleagues who have directly or indirectly supported this work.Keywords
- Non-CO2
- mitigation
- MAC curves
- climate policy