TY - JOUR
T1 - Malthus is still wrong
T2 - we can feed a world of 9-10 billion, but only by reducing food demand
AU - Smith, Pete
N1 - Acknowledgements
The paper was prepared for The Nutrition Society Annual Meeting: ‘Carbohydrates in Health: Friends or Foes’ held at the University of Glasgow in July 2014. This work contributes to the Scottish Food Security Alliance-Crops, the University of Aberdeen’s Environment and Food Security Theme, and to Scotland’s ClimateXChange.
Financial Support
This paper was prepared for the Nutrition Society Annual Meeting 2014 and travel and subsistence support was provided by the Nutrition Society.
PY - 2015/8
Y1 - 2015/8
N2 - In 1798, Thomas Robert Malthus published 'An essay on the principle of population' in which he concluded that: 'The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.' Over the following century he was criticised for underestimating the potential for scientific and technological innovation to provide positive change. Since then, he has been proved wrong, with a number of papers published during the past few decades pointing out why he has been proved wrong so many times. In the present paper, I briefly review the main changes in food production in the past that have allowed us to continue to meet ever growing demand for food, and I examine the possibility of these same innovations delivering food security in the future. On the basis of recent studies, I conclude that technological innovation can no longer be relied upon to prove Malthus wrong as we strive to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050. Unless we are prepared to accept a wide range of significant, undesirable environmental consequences, technology alone cannot provide food security in 2050. Food demand, particularly the demand for livestock products, will need to be managed if we are to continue to prove Malthus wrong into the future.
AB - In 1798, Thomas Robert Malthus published 'An essay on the principle of population' in which he concluded that: 'The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.' Over the following century he was criticised for underestimating the potential for scientific and technological innovation to provide positive change. Since then, he has been proved wrong, with a number of papers published during the past few decades pointing out why he has been proved wrong so many times. In the present paper, I briefly review the main changes in food production in the past that have allowed us to continue to meet ever growing demand for food, and I examine the possibility of these same innovations delivering food security in the future. On the basis of recent studies, I conclude that technological innovation can no longer be relied upon to prove Malthus wrong as we strive to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050. Unless we are prepared to accept a wide range of significant, undesirable environmental consequences, technology alone cannot provide food security in 2050. Food demand, particularly the demand for livestock products, will need to be managed if we are to continue to prove Malthus wrong into the future.
KW - agriculture
KW - dietary change
KW - food demand
KW - food production
KW - food security
U2 - 10.1017/S0029665114001517
DO - 10.1017/S0029665114001517
M3 - Article
C2 - 25319456
VL - 74
SP - 187
EP - 190
JO - Proceedings of the Nutrition Society
JF - Proceedings of the Nutrition Society
SN - 0029-6651
IS - 3
ER -
