Modeling Space Market Dynamics: An Illustration Using Panel Data for US Retail

Bryan Duncan MacGregor, Patric Henry Hendershott, Maarten Jennen

    Research output: Contribution to conferenceUnpublished paper


    Real estate research has a long and extensive history of analyzing space market dynamics. Nonetheless, two areas have been under researched. Regional panels of data have been rarely analyzed. Moreover, due to data constraints, the retail market has been studied much less than other market segments.
    This paper addresses both of these topics through an analysis of Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level panel data. Our study covers almost three decades of annual retail data for 11 of the largest MSAs of the United States. We estimate a long run rent model and use Error Correction Models for short run rent, vacancy and supply adjustments. We show that local markets behave in different ways in both the long run and in their short run adjustments to supply changes. We identify two groups of similar markets.
    Original languageEnglish
    Publication statusUnpublished - Jul 2011


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