Modelling conservation conflicts

Modelling enables theory and empirical evidence to be brought together to build representations of how real-world systems work and how they are likely to respond to external influences. Models can take many forms, such as simple verbal or written descriptions, flow diagrams, sets of mathematical equations or computer programs. Usually the process begins with the development of a verbal or written description of a real-world system (i.e. a ‘conceptual model’), which subsequently can be translated into a mathematical or computational format (i.e. an ‘implemented model’). This implemented model can then be given appropriate inputs such that outputs, predicting the dynamics of the system of interest, are generated (Edmonds and Hales, 2003; Wilensky and Rand, 2007; Fig. 14.1). The outputs can then be compared to understanding or empirical data related to the behaviour of a natural system and this comparison can result in modification of the conceptual model. This iterative process can make amajor contribution to our understanding of how systems work and what may be the crucial drivers of a system (Edmonds, 2000; Fig. 14.1)