Nation-States with Multinational Populations: Cross-Cutting Cleavages in the Baltic States

The first section of this paper summarizes succinctly the move from the post-Versailles establishment of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as nation-states to the loss of independence through forced incorporation into the Soviet Union in the Second World War; the restoration of independence with the break up of the Soviet Union; and re-integration in the European state system through membership of the European Union in 2004. Survey data from the New Baltic Barometer shows substantial differences in political evaluations and economic conditions within each of the three Baltic countries. Differences are consistent with theories of nationality as the dominant influence on individual outlooks-but they are also consistent with theories that postulate the importance of cross-cutting socio-economic cleavages. Statistical analysis tests under what circumstances and to what extent differences in political evaluations and economic conditions are determined by nationality or by cross-cutting political and socio-economic influences, including instrumental evaluation of EU ties.