Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Stephen J. Thackeray; Peter A. Henrys; Deborah Hemming; James R.  Bell; Marc S.  Botham; Sarah Burthe; Pierre Helaouet; David G. Johns; Ian D.  Jones; David I. Leech; Eleanor B. Mackay; Dario Massimino; Sian  Atkinson; Philip J. Bacon; Tom M. Brereton; Laurence Carvalho; Tim H. Clutton-Brock; Callan Duck; Martin Edwards; J. Malcolm  Elliott; Stephen J. G.  Hall; Richard Harrington; James W. Pearce-Higgins; Toke T. Hoye; Loeske E. B. Kruuk; Josephine M.  Pemberton; Tim H. Sparks; Paul M. Thompson; Ian White; Ian J.  Winfield; Sarah Wanless

doi:10.1038/nature18608

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Stephen J. Thackeray, Peter A. Henrys, Deborah Hemming, James R. Bell, Marc S. Botham, Sarah Burthe, Pierre Helaouet, David G. Johns, Ian D. Jones, David I. Leech, Eleanor B. Mackay, Dario Massimino, Sian Atkinson, Philip J. Bacon, Tom M. Brereton, Laurence Carvalho, Tim H. Clutton-Brock, Callan Duck, Martin Edwards, J. Malcolm ElliottStephen J. G. Hall, Richard Harrington, James W. Pearce-Higgins, Toke T. Hoye, Loeske E. B. Kruuk, Josephine M. Pemberton, Tim H. Sparks, Paul M. Thompson, Ian White, Ian J. Winfield, Sarah Wanless

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

608 Citations (Scopus)

11 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	241-245
Number of pages	5
Journal	Nature
Volume	535
Issue number	7611
Early online date	29 Jun 2016
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18608
Publication status	Published - 14 Jul 2016

Bibliographical note

This work was funded by Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/J02080X/1. We thank O. Mountford for assigning species traits for plants, H. Feuchtmayr for extracting plankton data for analysis and N. Dodd for air and water temperature data from the Tarland Burn. We also thank P. Verrier, the staff and many volunteers and contributors, including Science and Advice for Scottish Agriculture, to the Rothamsted Insect Survey (RIS) over the last half century. The RIS is a National Capability strategically funded by BBSRC. The consortium represented by the authorship list hold long-term data that represent a considerable investment in scientific endeavour. Whilst we are committed to sharing these data for scientific research, users are requested to collaborate before publication of these data to ensure accurate biological interpretation.

Keywords

phenology
food webs

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1038/nature18608Licence: Unspecified

Accepted Manuscript
http://www.nature.com/authors/policies/confidentiality.html
Accepted author manuscript, 771 KBLicence: Unspecified

Cite this

Thackeray, S. J., Henrys, P. A., Hemming, D., Bell, J. R., Botham, M. S., Burthe, S., Helaouet, P., Johns, D. G., Jones, I. D., Leech, D. I., Mackay, E. B., Massimino, D., Atkinson, S., Bacon, P. J., Brereton, T. M., Carvalho, L., Clutton-Brock, T. H., Duck, C., Edwards, M., ... Wanless, S. (2016). Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels. Nature, 535(7611), 241-245. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18608

Thackeray, SJ, Henrys, PA, Hemming, D, Bell, JR, Botham, MS, Burthe, S, Helaouet, P, Johns, DG, Jones, ID, Leech, DI, Mackay, EB, Massimino, D, Atkinson, S, Bacon, PJ, Brereton, TM, Carvalho, L, Clutton-Brock, TH, Duck, C, Edwards, M, Elliott, JM, Hall, SJG, Harrington, R, Pearce-Higgins, JW, Hoye, TT, Kruuk, LEB, Pemberton, JM, Sparks, TH, Thompson, PM, White, I, Winfield, IJ & Wanless, S 2016, 'Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels', Nature, vol. 535, no. 7611, pp. 241-245. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18608

@article{996a6def261e473dac545ef1b362f5c3,

title = "Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels",

abstract = "Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).",

keywords = "phenology, food webs",

author = "Thackeray, {Stephen J.} and Henrys, {Peter A.} and Deborah Hemming and Bell, {James R.} and Botham, {Marc S.} and Sarah Burthe and Pierre Helaouet and Johns, {David G.} and Jones, {Ian D.} and Leech, {David I.} and Mackay, {Eleanor B.} and Dario Massimino and Sian Atkinson and Bacon, {Philip J.} and Brereton, {Tom M.} and Laurence Carvalho and Clutton-Brock, {Tim H.} and Callan Duck and Martin Edwards and Elliott, {J. Malcolm} and Hall, {Stephen J. G.} and Richard Harrington and Pearce-Higgins, {James W.} and Hoye, {Toke T.} and Kruuk, {Loeske E. B.} and Pemberton, {Josephine M.} and Sparks, {Tim H.} and Thompson, {Paul M.} and Ian White and Winfield, {Ian J.} and Sarah Wanless",

note = "This work was funded by Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/J02080X/1. We thank O. Mountford for assigning species traits for plants, H. Feuchtmayr for extracting plankton data for analysis and N. Dodd for air and water temperature data from the Tarland Burn. We also thank P. Verrier, the staff and many volunteers and contributors, including Science and Advice for Scottish Agriculture, to the Rothamsted Insect Survey (RIS) over the last half century. The RIS is a National Capability strategically funded by BBSRC. The consortium represented by the authorship list hold long-term data that represent a considerable investment in scientific endeavour. Whilst we are committed to sharing these data for scientific research, users are requested to collaborate before publication of these data to ensure accurate biological interpretation.",

year = "2016",

month = jul,

day = "14",

doi = "10.1038/nature18608",

language = "English",

volume = "535",

pages = "241--245",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "0028-0836",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "7611",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

AU - Thackeray, Stephen J.

AU - Henrys, Peter A.

AU - Hemming, Deborah

AU - Bell, James R.

AU - Botham, Marc S.

AU - Burthe, Sarah

AU - Helaouet, Pierre

AU - Johns, David G.

AU - Jones, Ian D.

AU - Leech, David I.

AU - Mackay, Eleanor B.

AU - Massimino, Dario

AU - Atkinson, Sian

AU - Bacon, Philip J.

AU - Brereton, Tom M.

AU - Carvalho, Laurence

AU - Clutton-Brock, Tim H.

AU - Duck, Callan

AU - Edwards, Martin

AU - Elliott, J. Malcolm

AU - Hall, Stephen J. G.

AU - Harrington, Richard

AU - Pearce-Higgins, James W.

AU - Hoye, Toke T.

AU - Kruuk, Loeske E. B.

AU - Pemberton, Josephine M.

AU - Sparks, Tim H.

AU - Thompson, Paul M.

AU - White, Ian

AU - Winfield, Ian J.

AU - Wanless, Sarah

N1 - This work was funded by Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/J02080X/1. We thank O. Mountford for assigning species traits for plants, H. Feuchtmayr for extracting plankton data for analysis and N. Dodd for air and water temperature data from the Tarland Burn. We also thank P. Verrier, the staff and many volunteers and contributors, including Science and Advice for Scottish Agriculture, to the Rothamsted Insect Survey (RIS) over the last half century. The RIS is a National Capability strategically funded by BBSRC. The consortium represented by the authorship list hold long-term data that represent a considerable investment in scientific endeavour. Whilst we are committed to sharing these data for scientific research, users are requested to collaborate before publication of these data to ensure accurate biological interpretation.

PY - 2016/7/14

Y1 - 2016/7/14

N2 - Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

AB - Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

KW - phenology

KW - food webs

U2 - 10.1038/nature18608

DO - 10.1038/nature18608

M3 - Article

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 535

SP - 241

EP - 245

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 7611

ER -

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this