PopFor: A new model for estimating poplar yields

Dagmar N Henner* (Corresponding Author), Astley Hastings, Mark Pogson, Niall McNamara, Christian A. Davies, Pete Smith

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Lignocellulosic bioenergy crops are a potential option for climate mitigation and for meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement in Europe. The PopFor process-based model has been developed based on the earlier MiscanFor model and parameterised for poplar using data from a literature review in combination with experimental data on high performing clones Max 1, 3, 4 for extensively and intensively managed sites in Germany. PopFor needs comparatively few input data to provide accurate estimates of biomass yield. The parameters found allowed a good match to measured values. The best fit for bud emergence is 81 °days (base 5), with leaf emergence at 463 °days (base 5) and the temperature at which photosynthesis slows is 28 °C. Maximum radiation use efficiency was set to 2.9 gMJ−1. The air temperature threshold that kills crop was set at −37 °C with the number of days below this threshold that kills the crop set at 90 days. 30 days below wiltpoint was set as a threshold that kills the crop from drought. It was found that plant available water was the key explanatory variable in predicting yield and access to groundwater explained 97% of the yield variation between the sites. The results show that the model estimates the yield of poplar after the establishment phase with a mean difference of 0.27 DM t ha−1 y−1 (r2 0.99, n29, F = 4.18, p < 0.05 with RMSE = 19.68%). PopFor was shown to be an effective model for predicting yields under different soil conditions.
Original languageEnglish
Article number105470
JournalBiomass & Bioenergy
Volume134
Early online date7 Feb 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2020

Keywords

  • PopFor
  • poplar
  • bioenergy crop
  • process-based model
  • yield
  • parameterisation
  • Parameterisation
  • Poplar
  • Yield
  • Process-based model
  • Bioenergy crop
  • WATER-USE
  • LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS
  • USE EFFICIENCY
  • VS. 2ND ROTATION
  • SHORT-ROTATION COPPICE
  • LIGHT INTERCEPTION
  • ACTIVE ZONE
  • GENETIC-IMPROVEMENT
  • PHYSIOLOGICAL TRAITS
  • ENERGY CROPS

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Forestry
  • Waste Management and Disposal
  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

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