Predicting and understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of species recovery: implications for Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon conservation in China

Yiwen Sun, Tiejun Wang, Andrew K. Skidmore, Stephen C. F. Palmer, Xinping Ye, Changqing Ding, Qi Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Aim

Some threatened species are now recovering after a period of serious decline. Understanding and predicting the spatio-temporal recolonization of these species in a heterogeneous landscape are important for their conservation planning. We aimed to predict the range expansion of the endangered Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon as it recovers from near-extinction to guide its in situ conservation and plan possible reintroductions.
Location

Central China.
Methods

We used a presence-only ecological niche model to predict breeding habitat suitability and a newly developed, spatially explicit and individual-based dynamic modelling platform to simulate range expansion. We performed a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of uncertainty in demographic and dispersal parameters on the simulation of range dynamics. The impact of human-induced mortality risk was also investigated.
Results

Predictions showed that the Asian crested ibis population and the range extent would continue to increase over the next 50 years, and the species would recolonize parts of its historical range. However, the majority of the population would still be restricted to a relatively small region, and some potential suitable regions might not be recolonized for decades by natural dispersal. Moreover, the simulated range dynamics were sensitive to life history trait parameters, among which adult survival probability and the proportion of long-distance dispersal events showed the strongest effects. High human-induced mortality risks had a significant negative effect on population growth and range expansion.
Main conclusions

This study demonstrates how hybrid modelling can inform conservation management of threatened species as they recolonize former habitat. The findings enable prioritization of management efforts, highlight the need for long-term monitoring of the key life history parameters and provide evidence to guide the selection of potential reintroduction sites for the long-term survival and recovery of target species.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)893-904
Number of pages12
JournalDiversity and Distributions
Volume22
Issue number8
Early online date23 Jun 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2016

Fingerprint

threatened species
range expansion
China
mortality risk
life history
reintroduction
prioritization
breeding sites
anthropogenic activities
population growth
niches
extinction
demographic statistics
uncertainty
planning
conservation planning
conservation management
habitat
recolonization
life history trait

Keywords

  • dispersal
  • habitat suitability
  • range expansion
  • spatially explicit individual-based model
  • species recovery
  • threatened species

Cite this

Predicting and understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of species recovery : implications for Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon conservation in China. / Sun, Yiwen; Wang, Tiejun; Skidmore, Andrew K.; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Ye, Xinping; Ding, Changqing; Wang, Qi.

In: Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 22, No. 8, 08.2016, p. 893-904.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Sun, Yiwen ; Wang, Tiejun ; Skidmore, Andrew K. ; Palmer, Stephen C. F. ; Ye, Xinping ; Ding, Changqing ; Wang, Qi. / Predicting and understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of species recovery : implications for Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon conservation in China. In: Diversity and Distributions. 2016 ; Vol. 22, No. 8. pp. 893-904.
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title = "Predicting and understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of species recovery: implications for Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon conservation in China",
abstract = "AimSome threatened species are now recovering after a period of serious decline. Understanding and predicting the spatio-temporal recolonization of these species in a heterogeneous landscape are important for their conservation planning. We aimed to predict the range expansion of the endangered Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon as it recovers from near-extinction to guide its in situ conservation and plan possible reintroductions.LocationCentral China.MethodsWe used a presence-only ecological niche model to predict breeding habitat suitability and a newly developed, spatially explicit and individual-based dynamic modelling platform to simulate range expansion. We performed a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of uncertainty in demographic and dispersal parameters on the simulation of range dynamics. The impact of human-induced mortality risk was also investigated.ResultsPredictions showed that the Asian crested ibis population and the range extent would continue to increase over the next 50 years, and the species would recolonize parts of its historical range. However, the majority of the population would still be restricted to a relatively small region, and some potential suitable regions might not be recolonized for decades by natural dispersal. Moreover, the simulated range dynamics were sensitive to life history trait parameters, among which adult survival probability and the proportion of long-distance dispersal events showed the strongest effects. High human-induced mortality risks had a significant negative effect on population growth and range expansion.Main conclusionsThis study demonstrates how hybrid modelling can inform conservation management of threatened species as they recolonize former habitat. The findings enable prioritization of management efforts, highlight the need for long-term monitoring of the key life history parameters and provide evidence to guide the selection of potential reintroduction sites for the long-term survival and recovery of target species.",
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author = "Yiwen Sun and Tiejun Wang and Skidmore, {Andrew K.} and Palmer, {Stephen C. F.} and Xinping Ye and Changqing Ding and Qi Wang",
note = "Acknowledgements This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31372218) and cofunded by the China Scholarship Council (CSC) and the ITC Research Fund, Enschede, the Netherlands. We thank Shaanxi Hanzhong Crested Ibis National Nature Reserve for sharing the data of nest site locations. We are grateful to Brendan Wintle, Justin Travis and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on a previous version of the manuscript.",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting and understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of species recovery

T2 - implications for Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon conservation in China

AU - Sun, Yiwen

AU - Wang, Tiejun

AU - Skidmore, Andrew K.

AU - Palmer, Stephen C. F.

AU - Ye, Xinping

AU - Ding, Changqing

AU - Wang, Qi

N1 - Acknowledgements This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31372218) and cofunded by the China Scholarship Council (CSC) and the ITC Research Fund, Enschede, the Netherlands. We thank Shaanxi Hanzhong Crested Ibis National Nature Reserve for sharing the data of nest site locations. We are grateful to Brendan Wintle, Justin Travis and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on a previous version of the manuscript.

PY - 2016/8

Y1 - 2016/8

N2 - AimSome threatened species are now recovering after a period of serious decline. Understanding and predicting the spatio-temporal recolonization of these species in a heterogeneous landscape are important for their conservation planning. We aimed to predict the range expansion of the endangered Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon as it recovers from near-extinction to guide its in situ conservation and plan possible reintroductions.LocationCentral China.MethodsWe used a presence-only ecological niche model to predict breeding habitat suitability and a newly developed, spatially explicit and individual-based dynamic modelling platform to simulate range expansion. We performed a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of uncertainty in demographic and dispersal parameters on the simulation of range dynamics. The impact of human-induced mortality risk was also investigated.ResultsPredictions showed that the Asian crested ibis population and the range extent would continue to increase over the next 50 years, and the species would recolonize parts of its historical range. However, the majority of the population would still be restricted to a relatively small region, and some potential suitable regions might not be recolonized for decades by natural dispersal. Moreover, the simulated range dynamics were sensitive to life history trait parameters, among which adult survival probability and the proportion of long-distance dispersal events showed the strongest effects. High human-induced mortality risks had a significant negative effect on population growth and range expansion.Main conclusionsThis study demonstrates how hybrid modelling can inform conservation management of threatened species as they recolonize former habitat. The findings enable prioritization of management efforts, highlight the need for long-term monitoring of the key life history parameters and provide evidence to guide the selection of potential reintroduction sites for the long-term survival and recovery of target species.

AB - AimSome threatened species are now recovering after a period of serious decline. Understanding and predicting the spatio-temporal recolonization of these species in a heterogeneous landscape are important for their conservation planning. We aimed to predict the range expansion of the endangered Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon as it recovers from near-extinction to guide its in situ conservation and plan possible reintroductions.LocationCentral China.MethodsWe used a presence-only ecological niche model to predict breeding habitat suitability and a newly developed, spatially explicit and individual-based dynamic modelling platform to simulate range expansion. We performed a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of uncertainty in demographic and dispersal parameters on the simulation of range dynamics. The impact of human-induced mortality risk was also investigated.ResultsPredictions showed that the Asian crested ibis population and the range extent would continue to increase over the next 50 years, and the species would recolonize parts of its historical range. However, the majority of the population would still be restricted to a relatively small region, and some potential suitable regions might not be recolonized for decades by natural dispersal. Moreover, the simulated range dynamics were sensitive to life history trait parameters, among which adult survival probability and the proportion of long-distance dispersal events showed the strongest effects. High human-induced mortality risks had a significant negative effect on population growth and range expansion.Main conclusionsThis study demonstrates how hybrid modelling can inform conservation management of threatened species as they recolonize former habitat. The findings enable prioritization of management efforts, highlight the need for long-term monitoring of the key life history parameters and provide evidence to guide the selection of potential reintroduction sites for the long-term survival and recovery of target species.

KW - dispersal

KW - habitat suitability

KW - range expansion

KW - spatially explicit individual-based model

KW - species recovery

KW - threatened species

U2 - 10.1111/ddi.12460

DO - 10.1111/ddi.12460

M3 - Article

VL - 22

SP - 893

EP - 904

JO - Diversity and Distributions

JF - Diversity and Distributions

SN - 1366-9516

IS - 8

ER -