Abstract
Aim
Some threatened species are now recovering after a period of serious decline. Understanding and predicting the spatio-temporal recolonization of these species in a heterogeneous landscape are important for their conservation planning. We aimed to predict the range expansion of the endangered Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon as it recovers from near-extinction to guide its in situ conservation and plan possible reintroductions.
Location
Central China.
Methods
We used a presence-only ecological niche model to predict breeding habitat suitability and a newly developed, spatially explicit and individual-based dynamic modelling platform to simulate range expansion. We performed a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of uncertainty in demographic and dispersal parameters on the simulation of range dynamics. The impact of human-induced mortality risk was also investigated.
Results
Predictions showed that the Asian crested ibis population and the range extent would continue to increase over the next 50 years, and the species would recolonize parts of its historical range. However, the majority of the population would still be restricted to a relatively small region, and some potential suitable regions might not be recolonized for decades by natural dispersal. Moreover, the simulated range dynamics were sensitive to life history trait parameters, among which adult survival probability and the proportion of long-distance dispersal events showed the strongest effects. High human-induced mortality risks had a significant negative effect on population growth and range expansion.
Main conclusions
This study demonstrates how hybrid modelling can inform conservation management of threatened species as they recolonize former habitat. The findings enable prioritization of management efforts, highlight the need for long-term monitoring of the key life history parameters and provide evidence to guide the selection of potential reintroduction sites for the long-term survival and recovery of target species.
Some threatened species are now recovering after a period of serious decline. Understanding and predicting the spatio-temporal recolonization of these species in a heterogeneous landscape are important for their conservation planning. We aimed to predict the range expansion of the endangered Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon as it recovers from near-extinction to guide its in situ conservation and plan possible reintroductions.
Location
Central China.
Methods
We used a presence-only ecological niche model to predict breeding habitat suitability and a newly developed, spatially explicit and individual-based dynamic modelling platform to simulate range expansion. We performed a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of uncertainty in demographic and dispersal parameters on the simulation of range dynamics. The impact of human-induced mortality risk was also investigated.
Results
Predictions showed that the Asian crested ibis population and the range extent would continue to increase over the next 50 years, and the species would recolonize parts of its historical range. However, the majority of the population would still be restricted to a relatively small region, and some potential suitable regions might not be recolonized for decades by natural dispersal. Moreover, the simulated range dynamics were sensitive to life history trait parameters, among which adult survival probability and the proportion of long-distance dispersal events showed the strongest effects. High human-induced mortality risks had a significant negative effect on population growth and range expansion.
Main conclusions
This study demonstrates how hybrid modelling can inform conservation management of threatened species as they recolonize former habitat. The findings enable prioritization of management efforts, highlight the need for long-term monitoring of the key life history parameters and provide evidence to guide the selection of potential reintroduction sites for the long-term survival and recovery of target species.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 893-904 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Diversity and Distributions |
| Volume | 22 |
| Issue number | 8 |
| Early online date | 23 Jun 2016 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Aug 2016 |
Bibliographical note
AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31372218) and cofunded by the China Scholarship Council (CSC) and the ITC Research Fund, Enschede, the Netherlands. We thank Shaanxi Hanzhong Crested Ibis National Nature Reserve for sharing the data of nest site locations. We are grateful to Brendan Wintle, Justin Travis and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on a previous version of the manuscript.
Keywords
- dispersal
- habitat suitability
- range expansion
- spatially explicit individual-based model
- species recovery
- threatened species
Access to Document
- Predicting and understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of species recovery: implications for Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon conservation in China
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