Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences

Enrico Pirotta, John Harwood, Paul M Thompson, Leslie New, Barbara Cheney, Monica Arso, Philip S Hammond, Carl Donovan, David Lusseau

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring.

Original languageEnglish
Article number20152109
Number of pages9
JournalProceedings of the Royal Society of London. B, Biological Sciences
Volume282
Issue number1818
Early online date28 Oct 2015
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2015

Fingerprint

Dolphins
human development
Human Development
dolphin
dolphins
Dredging
Boats
calves
Ecology
Population
coastal development
Animals
individual-based model
sublethal effect
behavioral response
dredging
Bottle-Nosed Dolphin
Monitoring
Tursiops truncatus
sublethal effects

Keywords

  • behavioural response
  • human development
  • individual based modelling
  • individual heterogenity
  • management
  • Population consequences of disturbance

Cite this

Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences. / Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David.

In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. B, Biological Sciences, Vol. 282, No. 1818, 20152109, 11.2015.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{fa8f75663f404dcb92579c1e52deb5c8,
title = "Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences",
abstract = "Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring.",
keywords = "behavioural response, human development, individual based modelling, individual heterogenity, management, Population consequences of disturbance",
author = "Enrico Pirotta and John Harwood and Thompson, {Paul M} and Leslie New and Barbara Cheney and Monica Arso and Hammond, {Philip S} and Carl Donovan and David Lusseau",
note = "Funding. This work received funding from the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS pooling initiative). {\circledC} 2015 The Author(s).",
year = "2015",
month = "11",
doi = "10.1098/rspb.2015.2109",
language = "English",
volume = "282",
journal = "Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. B, Biological Sciences",
issn = "0962-8452",
publisher = "ROYAL SOC CHEMISTRY",
number = "1818",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences

AU - Pirotta, Enrico

AU - Harwood, John

AU - Thompson, Paul M

AU - New, Leslie

AU - Cheney, Barbara

AU - Arso, Monica

AU - Hammond, Philip S

AU - Donovan, Carl

AU - Lusseau, David

N1 - Funding. This work received funding from the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS pooling initiative). © 2015 The Author(s).

PY - 2015/11

Y1 - 2015/11

N2 - Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring.

AB - Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring.

KW - behavioural response

KW - human development

KW - individual based modelling

KW - individual heterogenity

KW - management

KW - Population consequences of disturbance

U2 - 10.1098/rspb.2015.2109

DO - 10.1098/rspb.2015.2109

M3 - Article

VL - 282

JO - Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. B, Biological Sciences

JF - Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. B, Biological Sciences

SN - 0962-8452

IS - 1818

M1 - 20152109

ER -