Probabilistic considerations in the damage analysis of ship collisions

Ship collision events are often analyzed by following the approach of internal mechanics and external dynamics. The uncertainties in collision scenario parameters, which are used in the calculation of external dynamics, are usually quantified during ship collision analysis. However, uncertainties in the material and geometric properties are often overlooked during the analysis of internal mechanics. Consequently, it may lead to overestimation or underestimation of ship structural design capacity, which could impact on system performance.
This study aims to show a framework for assessing the reliability of ship hull structures during collision events. Finite element analysis using ABAQUS software and simplified analytical methods have been utilized to model the resistance of ship hull plates against the impact from the bulbous bow of a striking ship. The particulars of a general cargo vessel involved in a real-life collision have been used in the study to determine the external force required for the considered hull plate to resist. Based on Monte Carlo simulation, reliability analysis has been carried out to model the uncertainties of hull plate displacement. Two thousand design sets of the geometric and material properties were propagated through the simplified analytical model to obtain the resulting displacement data. These data were subsequently analyzed to obtain a probabilistic model for hull plate displacement, along with the variable sensitivity.