Probabilistic Forecasts of Epileptic Seizures and Evaluation by the Brier Score

M. Jachan, H. Feldwisch Genannt Drentrup, F. Posdziech, A. Brandt, D. -M. Altenmueller, A. Schulze-Bonhage, J. Timmer, B. Schelter

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

We present a probabilistic epileptic seizure predictor and an according method for its statistical evaluation. The probabilistic predictor is based on a combination of feature channels, which are derived from the intracranial electroencephalogram (EEG), by a logistic regression map. The evaluation is done by the Brier score, an established assessment method in meteorology, which quantifies the prediction error. From the prediction features, the weights of the logistic regression are learned in a training phase and in a test phase the Brier score is assessed. A test for significance of the probabilistic predictor, based on seizure time surrogates, is computed. For 3 of 5 patients we obtained significant predictive power with the mean phase coherence and with the dynamical similarity index we obtained for 2 of the 5 patients significant results. The concept of probabilistic prediction can be a valuable tool for the development of future seizure intervention systems.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication4th European Conference of the International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering
EditorsJ VanderSloten, P Verdonck, M Nyssen, J Haueisen
Place of PublicationNew York
PublisherSpringer
Pages1701-1705
Number of pages5
ISBN (Print)978-3-540-89207-6
Publication statusPublished - 2009
Event4th European Conference of the International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering (ECIFMBE) - Antwerp
Duration: 23 Nov 200827 Nov 2008

Publication series

NameIFMBE Proceedings
PublisherSpringer
Volume22
ISSN (Print)1680-0737

Conference

Conference4th European Conference of the International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering (ECIFMBE)
CityAntwerp
Period23/11/0827/11/08

Cite this

Jachan, M., Drentrup, H. F. G., Posdziech, F., Brandt, A., Altenmueller, D. -M., Schulze-Bonhage, A., ... Schelter, B. (2009). Probabilistic Forecasts of Epileptic Seizures and Evaluation by the Brier Score. In J. VanderSloten, P. Verdonck, M. Nyssen, & J. Haueisen (Eds.), 4th European Conference of the International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering (pp. 1701-1705). (IFMBE Proceedings; Vol. 22). New York: Springer .

Probabilistic Forecasts of Epileptic Seizures and Evaluation by the Brier Score. / Jachan, M.; Drentrup, H. Feldwisch Genannt; Posdziech, F.; Brandt, A.; Altenmueller, D. -M.; Schulze-Bonhage, A.; Timmer, J.; Schelter, B.

4th European Conference of the International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering. ed. / J VanderSloten; P Verdonck; M Nyssen; J Haueisen. New York : Springer , 2009. p. 1701-1705 (IFMBE Proceedings; Vol. 22).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Jachan, M, Drentrup, HFG, Posdziech, F, Brandt, A, Altenmueller, D-M, Schulze-Bonhage, A, Timmer, J & Schelter, B 2009, Probabilistic Forecasts of Epileptic Seizures and Evaluation by the Brier Score. in J VanderSloten, P Verdonck, M Nyssen & J Haueisen (eds), 4th European Conference of the International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering. IFMBE Proceedings, vol. 22, Springer , New York, pp. 1701-1705, 4th European Conference of the International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering (ECIFMBE), Antwerp, 23/11/08.
Jachan M, Drentrup HFG, Posdziech F, Brandt A, Altenmueller D-M, Schulze-Bonhage A et al. Probabilistic Forecasts of Epileptic Seizures and Evaluation by the Brier Score. In VanderSloten J, Verdonck P, Nyssen M, Haueisen J, editors, 4th European Conference of the International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering. New York: Springer . 2009. p. 1701-1705. (IFMBE Proceedings).
Jachan, M. ; Drentrup, H. Feldwisch Genannt ; Posdziech, F. ; Brandt, A. ; Altenmueller, D. -M. ; Schulze-Bonhage, A. ; Timmer, J. ; Schelter, B. / Probabilistic Forecasts of Epileptic Seizures and Evaluation by the Brier Score. 4th European Conference of the International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering. editor / J VanderSloten ; P Verdonck ; M Nyssen ; J Haueisen. New York : Springer , 2009. pp. 1701-1705 (IFMBE Proceedings).
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abstract = "We present a probabilistic epileptic seizure predictor and an according method for its statistical evaluation. The probabilistic predictor is based on a combination of feature channels, which are derived from the intracranial electroencephalogram (EEG), by a logistic regression map. The evaluation is done by the Brier score, an established assessment method in meteorology, which quantifies the prediction error. From the prediction features, the weights of the logistic regression are learned in a training phase and in a test phase the Brier score is assessed. A test for significance of the probabilistic predictor, based on seizure time surrogates, is computed. For 3 of 5 patients we obtained significant predictive power with the mean phase coherence and with the dynamical similarity index we obtained for 2 of the 5 patients significant results. The concept of probabilistic prediction can be a valuable tool for the development of future seizure intervention systems.",
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AU - Altenmueller, D. -M.

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N2 - We present a probabilistic epileptic seizure predictor and an according method for its statistical evaluation. The probabilistic predictor is based on a combination of feature channels, which are derived from the intracranial electroencephalogram (EEG), by a logistic regression map. The evaluation is done by the Brier score, an established assessment method in meteorology, which quantifies the prediction error. From the prediction features, the weights of the logistic regression are learned in a training phase and in a test phase the Brier score is assessed. A test for significance of the probabilistic predictor, based on seizure time surrogates, is computed. For 3 of 5 patients we obtained significant predictive power with the mean phase coherence and with the dynamical similarity index we obtained for 2 of the 5 patients significant results. The concept of probabilistic prediction can be a valuable tool for the development of future seizure intervention systems.

AB - We present a probabilistic epileptic seizure predictor and an according method for its statistical evaluation. The probabilistic predictor is based on a combination of feature channels, which are derived from the intracranial electroencephalogram (EEG), by a logistic regression map. The evaluation is done by the Brier score, an established assessment method in meteorology, which quantifies the prediction error. From the prediction features, the weights of the logistic regression are learned in a training phase and in a test phase the Brier score is assessed. A test for significance of the probabilistic predictor, based on seizure time surrogates, is computed. For 3 of 5 patients we obtained significant predictive power with the mean phase coherence and with the dynamical similarity index we obtained for 2 of the 5 patients significant results. The concept of probabilistic prediction can be a valuable tool for the development of future seizure intervention systems.

M3 - Conference contribution

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BT - 4th European Conference of the International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering

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