Probabilistic Modeling of Bed-load Composition

This paper proposes that the changes which occur in composition of the bed load during the transport of mixed-grain-size sediments are largely controlled by the distributions of critical entrainment shear stress for the various size fractions. This hypothesis is examined for a unimodal sediment mixture by calculating these distributions with a discrete particle model and using them in a probabilistic calculation of bed-load composition. The estimates of bed-load composition compare favorably with observations of fractional transport rates made in a laboratory flume for the same sediment, suggesting that the hypothesis is reasonable. The analysis provides additional insight, in terms of grain mechanics, into the processes that determine bed-load composition. These insights strongly suggest that better prediction methods will result from taking account of the variation of threshold within size fractions, something that most previous studies have neglected.