Quantifying future changes affecting dry and wet states of soil moisture

Lucile Verrot, Georgia Destouni

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract


Soil moisture is at the heart of many processes connected to water cycle, climate, ecosystem and societal
conditions. The study we present investigates the impact of future climate change scenarios from the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for the 21st century on soil moisture intra- and inter- annual
patterns, and for both wet and dry conditions. From a relatively simple analytical soil-moisture model we explore
the temporal dynamics in long-term projected data series within and across 81 large catchments worldwide. We
quantify changes in mean seasonal soil moisture and its inter-annual variability, as well as in the frequency of dry
and wet events. Results show large changes in the intra-annual variability of the mean soil moisture, especially
for the dry season. Also, in some parts of the globe, the frequency of dry events increases to nearly double by
the end of the century. Finally, this study shows that both the direction of change in soil moisture conditions
and its magnitude for mainly the dry conditions depend greatly on climate scenario (representative concentration
pathway) assumed for the future.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 2016
EventEGU General Assembly 2016 - Vienna, Austria
Duration: 17 Apr 201622 Apr 2016


ConferenceEGU General Assembly 2016


Dive into the research topics of 'Quantifying future changes affecting dry and wet states of soil moisture'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this