Recent and prospective developments in natural gas markets in the UK and continental Europe

This paper examines the UK gas market over the next few years with the aid of financial simulation modelling techniques. There is likely to be an excess of potential UK productive capacity over UK demand into the next century. The market situation depends significantly on UK producers being able profitably to export to the European continent. New gas field exploitation in the Southern North Sea could continue at prices as low as 12 pence per therm. In the Central Sector where costs are much higher, field economics is complicated by the presence of oil of condensate with the gas.