Red noise increases extinction risk during rapid climate change

Karen Mustin*, Calvin Dytham, Tim G. Benton, Justin M. J. Travis

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Aim: As the global climate is changing rapidly, there is a need to make conservation decisions to facilitate species' persistence under climate change. Models employed to make predictions regarding the impacts of climate change on species' distributions, and ultimately persistence, typically assume that interannual variability in environmental conditions is independent between years. However, the colour of environmental noise has been shown to affect extinction risk in populations occupying spatially static environments, and should therefore affect persistence during climate change. This study aims to investigate the importance of noise colour for extinction risk during climate-induced range shifts. Methods: We use a spatially explicit coupled map lattice with a latitudinal gradient in climatic suitability, together with time series of environmental noise, to simulate periods of directional climate change and investigate the effects of noise colour on extinction risk and range size. Results: Extinction risk increases with reddening of the environmental noise, and this effect is particularly pronounced over short time frames when climate change is rapid. Main conclusions: Given that management decisions are typically made over such short time frames, and the rapid rates of climate change currently being experienced, we highlight the importance of incorporating realistic time series of environmental noise into models used for conservation planning under climate change.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)815-824
Number of pages10
JournalDiversity and Distributions
Volume19
Issue number7
Early online date17 Jan 2013
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2013

Fingerprint

extinction risk
extinction
climate change
persistence
color
time series analysis
time series
climate
latitudinal gradient
conservation planning
range size
global climate
biogeography
planning
environmental conditions
environmental factors
prediction
environmental noise

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Colour
  • Environmental noise
  • Extinction risk
  • Range shifting
  • Spatial population dynamics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cite this

Red noise increases extinction risk during rapid climate change. / Mustin, Karen; Dytham, Calvin; Benton, Tim G.; Travis, Justin M. J.

In: Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 19, No. 7, 07.2013, p. 815-824.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Mustin, Karen ; Dytham, Calvin ; Benton, Tim G. ; Travis, Justin M. J. / Red noise increases extinction risk during rapid climate change. In: Diversity and Distributions. 2013 ; Vol. 19, No. 7. pp. 815-824.
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