See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon

Deniz Eroglu, Fiona H. McRobie, Ibrahim Ozken, Thomas Stemler, Karl-Heinz Wyrwoll, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Norbert Marwan, Jürgen Kurths

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Abstract

The East Asian-Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could 'lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see-saw relationship over the last 9,000 years-with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime.

Original languageEnglish
Article number12929
Pages (from-to)1-7
Number of pages7
JournalNature Communications
Volume7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 26 Sep 2016

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Time series analysis
monsoons
Climate Change
Greenhouses
Climate change
summer
Rain
Hot Temperature
Earth (planet)
hemispheres
time series analysis
greenhouses
climate change
heat sources
winter
adjusting

Cite this

Eroglu, D., McRobie, F. H., Ozken, I., Stemler, T., Wyrwoll, K-H., Breitenbach, S. F. M., ... Kurths, J. (2016). See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon. Nature Communications, 7, 1-7. [12929]. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12929

See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon. / Eroglu, Deniz; McRobie, Fiona H.; Ozken, Ibrahim; Stemler, Thomas; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen.

In: Nature Communications, Vol. 7, 12929, 26.09.2016, p. 1-7.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Eroglu, D, McRobie, FH, Ozken, I, Stemler, T, Wyrwoll, K-H, Breitenbach, SFM, Marwan, N & Kurths, J 2016, 'See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon', Nature Communications, vol. 7, 12929, pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12929
Eroglu D, McRobie FH, Ozken I, Stemler T, Wyrwoll K-H, Breitenbach SFM et al. See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon. Nature Communications. 2016 Sep 26;7:1-7. 12929. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12929
Eroglu, Deniz ; McRobie, Fiona H. ; Ozken, Ibrahim ; Stemler, Thomas ; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz ; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M. ; Marwan, Norbert ; Kurths, Jürgen. / See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon. In: Nature Communications. 2016 ; Vol. 7. pp. 1-7.
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N2 - The East Asian-Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could 'lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see-saw relationship over the last 9,000 years-with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime.

AB - The East Asian-Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could 'lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see-saw relationship over the last 9,000 years-with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime.

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