Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

C. D. Jones; P. Ciais; S. J. Davis; P. Friedlingstein; T. Gasser; G. P. Peters; J. Rogelj; D. P. van Vuuren; J. G. Canadell; A. Cowie; R. B. Jackson; M. Jonas; E. Kriegler; E. Littleton; J. A. Lowe; J. Milne; G. Shrestha; P. Smith; A. Torvanger; A. Wiltshire

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012

Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

C. D. Jones, P. Ciais, S. J. Davis, P. Friedlingstein, T. Gasser, G. P. Peters, J. Rogelj, D. P. van Vuuren, J. G. Canadell, A. Cowie, R. B. Jackson, M. Jonas, E. Kriegler, E. Littleton, J. A. Lowe, J. Milne, G. Shrestha, P. Smith, A. Torvanger, A. Wiltshire

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Abstract

Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to achieve climate stabilization targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under low emissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. A key requirement for low carbon pathways is to quantify the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies which will be strongly affected by carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we find that Earth System Models suggest significant weakening, even potential reversal, of the ocean and land sinks under future low emission scenarios that will hinder the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies.

Original language	English
Article number	095012
Pages (from-to)	1-11
Number of pages	11
Journal	Environmental Research Letters
Volume	11
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012
Publication status	Published - 20 Sep 2016

Keywords

climate
carbon cycle
earth system
negative emissions
carbon dioxide removal
mitigation scenarios

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions
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Jones, C. D., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Friedlingstein, P., Gasser, T., Peters, G. P., Rogelj, J., van Vuuren, D. P., Canadell, J. G., Cowie, A., Jackson, R. B., Jonas, M., Kriegler, E., Littleton, E., Lowe, J. A., Milne, J., Shrestha, G., Smith, P., Torvanger, A., & Wiltshire, A. (2016). Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions. Environmental Research Letters, 11(9), 1-11. [095012]. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012

Jones, CD, Ciais, P, Davis, SJ, Friedlingstein, P, Gasser, T, Peters, GP, Rogelj, J, van Vuuren, DP, Canadell, JG, Cowie, A, Jackson, RB, Jonas, M, Kriegler, E, Littleton, E, Lowe, JA, Milne, J, Shrestha, G, Smith, P, Torvanger, A & Wiltshire, A 2016, 'Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, no. 9, 095012, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012

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abstract = "Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to achieve climate stabilization targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under low emissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. A key requirement for low carbon pathways is to quantify the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies which will be strongly affected by carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we find that Earth System Models suggest significant weakening, even potential reversal, of the ocean and land sinks under future low emission scenarios that will hinder the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies. ",

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author = "Jones, {C. D.} and P. Ciais and Davis, {S. J.} and P. Friedlingstein and T. Gasser and Peters, {G. P.} and J. Rogelj and {van Vuuren}, {D. P.} and Canadell, {J. G.} and A. Cowie and Jackson, {R. B.} and M. Jonas and E. Kriegler and E. Littleton and Lowe, {J. A.} and J. Milne and G. Shrestha and P. Smith and A. Torvanger and A. Wiltshire",

note = "Acknowledgements The work of CDJ, JAL, AW was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). CDJ, JAL, AW, PF, EK, DvV are supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 641816 (CRESCENDO). GPP was supported by the Norwegian Research Council (project 209701). PC acknowledges support from the European Research Council Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in artnership with the Global Organization for Earth system Science Portals. ",

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AU - Ciais, P.

AU - Davis, S. J.

AU - Friedlingstein, P.

AU - Gasser, T.

AU - Peters, G. P.

AU - Rogelj, J.

AU - van Vuuren, D. P.

AU - Canadell, J. G.

AU - Cowie, A.

AU - Jackson, R. B.

AU - Jonas, M.

AU - Kriegler, E.

AU - Littleton, E.

AU - Lowe, J. A.

AU - Milne, J.

AU - Shrestha, G.

AU - Smith, P.

AU - Torvanger, A.

AU - Wiltshire, A.

N1 - Acknowledgements The work of CDJ, JAL, AW was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). CDJ, JAL, AW, PF, EK, DvV are supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 641816 (CRESCENDO). GPP was supported by the Norwegian Research Council (project 209701). PC acknowledges support from the European Research Council Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in artnership with the Global Organization for Earth system Science Portals.

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N2 - Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to achieve climate stabilization targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under low emissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. A key requirement for low carbon pathways is to quantify the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies which will be strongly affected by carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we find that Earth System Models suggest significant weakening, even potential reversal, of the ocean and land sinks under future low emission scenarios that will hinder the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies.

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KW - climate

KW - carbon cycle

KW - earth system

KW - negative emissions

KW - carbon dioxide removal

KW - mitigation scenarios

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DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012

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JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 9

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Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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