Simulation of greenhouse gases following land-use change to bioenergy crops using the ECOSSE model

a comparison between site measurements and model predictions

Marta Dondini, Mark I. A. Richards, Mark Pogson, Jon McCalmont, Julia Drewer, Rachel Marshall, Ross Morrison, Sirwan Yamulki, Zoe M. Harris, Giorgi Alberti, Lukas Siebicke, Gail Taylor, Mike Perks, Jon Finch, Niall P. McNamara, Joanne U. Smith, Pete Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

This article evaluates the suitability of the ECOSSE model to estimate soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from short rotation coppice willow (SRC-Willow), short rotation forestry (SRF-Scots Pine) and Miscanthus after land-use change from conventional systems (grassland and arable). We simulate heterotrophic respiration (Rh), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) fluxes at four paired sites in the UK and compare them to estimates of Rh derived from the ecosystem respiration estimated from eddy covariance (EC) and Rh estimated from chamber (IRGA) measurements, as well as direct measurements of N2O and CH4 fluxes. Significant association between modelled and EC-derived Rh was found under Miscanthus, with correlation coefficient (r) ranging between 0.54 and 0.70. Association between IRGA-derived Rh and modelled outputs was statistically significant at the Aberystwyth site (r = 0.64), but not significant at the Lincolnshire site (r = 0.29). At all SRC-Willow sites, significant association was found between modelled and measurement-derived Rh (0.44 ≤ r ≤ 0.77); significant error was found only for the EC-derived Rh at the Lincolnshire site. Significant association and no significant error were also found for SRF-Scots Pine and perennial grass. For the arable fields, the modelled CO2 correlated well just with the IRGA-derived Rh at one site (r = 0.75). No bias in the model was found at any site, regardless of the measurement type used for the model evaluation. Across all land uses, fluxes of CH4 and N2O were shown to represent a small proportion of the total GHG balance; these fluxes have been modelled adequately on a monthly time-step. This study provides confidence in using ECOSSE for predicting the impacts of future land use on GHG balance, at site level as well as at national level.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)925-940
Number of pages16
JournalGlobal Change Biology. Bioenergy
Volume8
Issue number5
Early online date24 Aug 2015
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2016

Fingerprint

energy crops
bioenergy
eddy covariance
greenhouse gases
nitrous oxide
Greenhouse gases
Land use
land use change
Crops
greenhouse gas
coppice
methane production
Fluxes
Miscanthus
crop
prediction
respiration
Pinus sylvestris
simulation
land use

Keywords

  • ECOSSE model
  • energy crops
  • greenhouse gases
  • land-use change
  • Miscanthus
  • short rotation coppice
  • short rotation forestry

Cite this

Simulation of greenhouse gases following land-use change to bioenergy crops using the ECOSSE model : a comparison between site measurements and model predictions. / Dondini, Marta; Richards, Mark I. A.; Pogson, Mark; McCalmont, Jon; Drewer, Julia; Marshall, Rachel; Morrison, Ross; Yamulki, Sirwan; Harris, Zoe M.; Alberti, Giorgi; Siebicke, Lukas; Taylor, Gail; Perks, Mike; Finch, Jon; McNamara, Niall P.; Smith, Joanne U.; Smith, Pete.

In: Global Change Biology. Bioenergy, Vol. 8, No. 5, 09.2016, p. 925-940.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Dondini, M, Richards, MIA, Pogson, M, McCalmont, J, Drewer, J, Marshall, R, Morrison, R, Yamulki, S, Harris, ZM, Alberti, G, Siebicke, L, Taylor, G, Perks, M, Finch, J, McNamara, NP, Smith, JU & Smith, P 2016, 'Simulation of greenhouse gases following land-use change to bioenergy crops using the ECOSSE model: a comparison between site measurements and model predictions', Global Change Biology. Bioenergy, vol. 8, no. 5, pp. 925-940. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12298
Dondini, Marta ; Richards, Mark I. A. ; Pogson, Mark ; McCalmont, Jon ; Drewer, Julia ; Marshall, Rachel ; Morrison, Ross ; Yamulki, Sirwan ; Harris, Zoe M. ; Alberti, Giorgi ; Siebicke, Lukas ; Taylor, Gail ; Perks, Mike ; Finch, Jon ; McNamara, Niall P. ; Smith, Joanne U. ; Smith, Pete. / Simulation of greenhouse gases following land-use change to bioenergy crops using the ECOSSE model : a comparison between site measurements and model predictions. In: Global Change Biology. Bioenergy. 2016 ; Vol. 8, No. 5. pp. 925-940.
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abstract = "This article evaluates the suitability of the ECOSSE model to estimate soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from short rotation coppice willow (SRC-Willow), short rotation forestry (SRF-Scots Pine) and Miscanthus after land-use change from conventional systems (grassland and arable). We simulate heterotrophic respiration (Rh), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) fluxes at four paired sites in the UK and compare them to estimates of Rh derived from the ecosystem respiration estimated from eddy covariance (EC) and Rh estimated from chamber (IRGA) measurements, as well as direct measurements of N2O and CH4 fluxes. Significant association between modelled and EC-derived Rh was found under Miscanthus, with correlation coefficient (r) ranging between 0.54 and 0.70. Association between IRGA-derived Rh and modelled outputs was statistically significant at the Aberystwyth site (r = 0.64), but not significant at the Lincolnshire site (r = 0.29). At all SRC-Willow sites, significant association was found between modelled and measurement-derived Rh (0.44 ≤ r ≤ 0.77); significant error was found only for the EC-derived Rh at the Lincolnshire site. Significant association and no significant error were also found for SRF-Scots Pine and perennial grass. For the arable fields, the modelled CO2 correlated well just with the IRGA-derived Rh at one site (r = 0.75). No bias in the model was found at any site, regardless of the measurement type used for the model evaluation. Across all land uses, fluxes of CH4 and N2O were shown to represent a small proportion of the total GHG balance; these fluxes have been modelled adequately on a monthly time-step. This study provides confidence in using ECOSSE for predicting the impacts of future land use on GHG balance, at site level as well as at national level.",
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T2 - a comparison between site measurements and model predictions

AU - Dondini, Marta

AU - Richards, Mark I. A.

AU - Pogson, Mark

AU - McCalmont, Jon

AU - Drewer, Julia

AU - Marshall, Rachel

AU - Morrison, Ross

AU - Yamulki, Sirwan

AU - Harris, Zoe M.

AU - Alberti, Giorgi

AU - Siebicke, Lukas

AU - Taylor, Gail

AU - Perks, Mike

AU - Finch, Jon

AU - McNamara, Niall P.

AU - Smith, Joanne U.

AU - Smith, Pete

N1 - This work contributes to the ELUM (Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). We acknowledge the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

PY - 2016/9

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N2 - This article evaluates the suitability of the ECOSSE model to estimate soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from short rotation coppice willow (SRC-Willow), short rotation forestry (SRF-Scots Pine) and Miscanthus after land-use change from conventional systems (grassland and arable). We simulate heterotrophic respiration (Rh), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) fluxes at four paired sites in the UK and compare them to estimates of Rh derived from the ecosystem respiration estimated from eddy covariance (EC) and Rh estimated from chamber (IRGA) measurements, as well as direct measurements of N2O and CH4 fluxes. Significant association between modelled and EC-derived Rh was found under Miscanthus, with correlation coefficient (r) ranging between 0.54 and 0.70. Association between IRGA-derived Rh and modelled outputs was statistically significant at the Aberystwyth site (r = 0.64), but not significant at the Lincolnshire site (r = 0.29). At all SRC-Willow sites, significant association was found between modelled and measurement-derived Rh (0.44 ≤ r ≤ 0.77); significant error was found only for the EC-derived Rh at the Lincolnshire site. Significant association and no significant error were also found for SRF-Scots Pine and perennial grass. For the arable fields, the modelled CO2 correlated well just with the IRGA-derived Rh at one site (r = 0.75). No bias in the model was found at any site, regardless of the measurement type used for the model evaluation. Across all land uses, fluxes of CH4 and N2O were shown to represent a small proportion of the total GHG balance; these fluxes have been modelled adequately on a monthly time-step. This study provides confidence in using ECOSSE for predicting the impacts of future land use on GHG balance, at site level as well as at national level.

AB - This article evaluates the suitability of the ECOSSE model to estimate soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from short rotation coppice willow (SRC-Willow), short rotation forestry (SRF-Scots Pine) and Miscanthus after land-use change from conventional systems (grassland and arable). We simulate heterotrophic respiration (Rh), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) fluxes at four paired sites in the UK and compare them to estimates of Rh derived from the ecosystem respiration estimated from eddy covariance (EC) and Rh estimated from chamber (IRGA) measurements, as well as direct measurements of N2O and CH4 fluxes. Significant association between modelled and EC-derived Rh was found under Miscanthus, with correlation coefficient (r) ranging between 0.54 and 0.70. Association between IRGA-derived Rh and modelled outputs was statistically significant at the Aberystwyth site (r = 0.64), but not significant at the Lincolnshire site (r = 0.29). At all SRC-Willow sites, significant association was found between modelled and measurement-derived Rh (0.44 ≤ r ≤ 0.77); significant error was found only for the EC-derived Rh at the Lincolnshire site. Significant association and no significant error were also found for SRF-Scots Pine and perennial grass. For the arable fields, the modelled CO2 correlated well just with the IRGA-derived Rh at one site (r = 0.75). No bias in the model was found at any site, regardless of the measurement type used for the model evaluation. Across all land uses, fluxes of CH4 and N2O were shown to represent a small proportion of the total GHG balance; these fluxes have been modelled adequately on a monthly time-step. This study provides confidence in using ECOSSE for predicting the impacts of future land use on GHG balance, at site level as well as at national level.

KW - ECOSSE model

KW - energy crops

KW - greenhouse gases

KW - land-use change

KW - Miscanthus

KW - short rotation coppice

KW - short rotation forestry

U2 - 10.1111/gcbb.12298

DO - 10.1111/gcbb.12298

M3 - Article

VL - 8

SP - 925

EP - 940

JO - Global Change Biology. Bioenergy

JF - Global Change Biology. Bioenergy

SN - 1757-1693

IS - 5

ER -